March 12, 2025
Nasser Kandil
• Many Lebanese may believe that the release of several Lebanese prisoners from the occupying entity’s prisons sends a dual signal: it affirms the effectiveness of the diplomatic option in compelling the occupier to fulfill its obligations, while also offering a hopeful sign of nearing a resolution to end the occupation of Lebanese lands, as stipulated in the ceasefire agreement for their return to Lebanese sovereignty. This belief, however, is based on the apparent narrative that the Lebanese government successfully revived American efforts to pressure the occupier. Since these pressures led to the release of prisoners, it is assumed that similar efforts could lead to the evacuation of the disputed areas. But is this belief accurate?
• In fact, a meeting of the ceasefire monitoring committee took place yesterday with three agenda items: the release of prisoners, the withdrawal from areas designated for withdrawal under the ceasefire, and third, negotiations on what the occupier calls “border demarcation”, which Lebanon refers to as the withdrawal from Lebanese lands it has held since 2000, including the ten disputed points, such as the Shebaa Farms and Kfar Shouba Hills. What happened is that American and Israeli officials publicly stated that the three items were merged, with the release of prisoners happening in the context of starting negotiations on withdrawal and border demarcation.
• This was reiterated by the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said, “An agreement was reached at the Naqoura meeting to form three joint task forces to enhance stability in the region”. Netanyahu’s office added that these task forces would address the five points under Israeli control, as well as the disputed border points and the Blue Line, and the issue of Lebanese prisoners in Israeli prisons. This same statement appeared in a release from U.S. State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus, who said, “We are bringing together Lebanon and Israel for talks aimed at diplomatically resolving several outstanding issues between the two countries: the remaining disputed points along the Blue Line, and the remaining 5 points where Israeli forces are still deployed. Military to military talks concluded today in Naqouraa (…) and subsequently 5 Lebanese prisoners have been released back to Lebanon from Israel” She concluded, “We look forward to quickly convening these diplomat-led working groups to resolve outstanding issues, along with our international partners.”
• The poisoned American-Israeli deal essentially involves the release of prisoners, which is used to create a new negotiation framework. This framework links two key issues: the immediate land withdrawals required by the ceasefire agreement which stems from Resolution 1701, and the disputed territories which are to be resolved through a proposal from the UN Secretary-General. The original Resolution 1701 distinguished between these two issues, with the immediate withdrawals to be handled separately from the disputed areas. However, this new negotiation process ties them together, making the land that is supposed to be withdrawn immediately part of the same discussion as the disputed lands. These disputed areas are those that remain unresolved, and their fate is supposed to be decided through a proposal from the UN Secretary-General. As a result, there is no longer any discussion about the points that have not been withdrawn from within the Blue Line, meaning the withdrawal line drawn in 2000. The fate of the land within this line is now tied to the fate of the disputed lands outside of it, which Israel refused to withdraw from in 2000.
• In negotiations, the Americans and Israelis will present what they call the security interests of the occupation and the geographical needs to achieve this security, with the alternatives being clear: if Lebanon wants the occupier to leave these points, it must provide Israel with stronger reasons to feel secure. This is, quite simply, a peace agreement, normalisation, and the disarmament of the resistance.
• This is the poisoned American-Israeli deal, so do not celebrate. Instead, be vigilant and cautious about accepting negotiations that link the fate of the land inside the Blue Line with the land between it and the armistice line. This is a word of caution. May God bear witness that I have delivered the message!
