March 20, 2025
By Nasser Kandil
• It is difficult for any observer of the Turkish situation to accept the Turkish government’s shallow narrative that the legal pursuit of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoglu on corruption and bribery charges was merely a technical judicial matter.
• The eruption in Turkish streets in response to these legal and security developments reveals a deeper political divide – one that had long been simmering and merely awaited a spark. It also underscores the pivotal role that the Syrian crisis and its repercussions play in this division.
• At the heart of this divide is the split within Turkey’s traditional Islamist movement. On one side, the New Welfare Party champions support for Gaza and accuses President Recep Erdogan’s government of secretly aiding the occupying entity economically. It questions why Turkey has not followed the example of non-Islamic nations like Bolivia and Colombia in severing ties with the entity, despite their geographical and political distance from Palestine. On the other side, Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) pursues a neo-Ottoman agenda, using Syria as an entry point within international and regional frameworks that do not provoke the United States or Israel – an approach reinforced by the post-war dynamics in Syria.
• For weeks, it seemed that the AKP’s bet on this strategy was paying off. However, complications emerged as major Turkish corporations realised that the promised economic boom, driven by grand reconstruction projects in Syria, had evaporated. There was no Arab or European funding, no genuine lifting of sanctions, and the financial bubble that had formed around these expectations quickly collapsed. With Turkey’s economy already suffocating, Syria had appeared to be the last viable escape route – one that has now closed.
• Meanwhile, events on Syria’s coast have deepened Turkey’s internal divisions. The Turkish Alevi community, expressing solidarity with the victims of massacres in Syria’s coastal region, has been vocally calling for Turkish intervention in a manner befitting a secular state. In stark contrast, the neo-Ottoman fascist faction within Turkey insists on shielding the Damascus government from any criticism, seeing its survival as crucial to legitimising their broader neo-Ottoman ambitions.
• It is clear that the opposing forces within Turkey are mobilising all their strengths for a decisive confrontation at this critical historical moment. A growing alignment appears to be forming between Islamist factions supporting Gaza, opponents of neo-Ottoman fascism, and Kurdish, Alevi, and secular groups – an alliance poised for a defining battle that will not only shape Turkey’s future but also determine the course of its regional interventions, starting with Syria.
