Who does link the fate of the Lebanese and the Syrian presidencies?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Commenting on the dialogue of Al Sayyed Hassan Nasrollah on Al-Manar TV, the Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri has reached to a conclusion that seemed incomprehensible for whom has listened to him, when he accused Hezbollah in linking the presidential elections in Lebanon with the fate of the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. While in returning to the words of Al Sayyed Hassan Nasrollah, we do not find any trace of the accusation of Al-Hariri, because Al Sayyed Hassan Nasrollahhas cleared that “the essence of problem of the presidency is known and that Lebanon is in need of a strong president of a powerful personality, who is not sold or bought, is not afraid of the threats in the region, who serves the national interests among the others”. He added “the suitable characteristics which we find them fit for the position of the Republic’s presidency impose us the support of the General Michael Aoun and not conversely”, paying attention that the chance of the General Aoun will increase in reaching the presidency because “he is an independent, and does not related to a country or embassy or any agency”. Al Sayyed Hassan Nasrollah has clarified that if we do not agree on the presidential file then we will discuss the other issues at the negotiating table”. Therefore the only sentence which Al-Hariri has depended on concerning the speech of Al Sayyed Hassan Nasrollah is the call for not betting on the regional variables that make the General Aoun a subject for bargaining, because this will not happen in principle, so if the bet was on the weakness of the alliance which Hezbollah is a part of it regionally, and the victories which were achieved by the opposed alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Al Mustaqbal Movement which is a part of it, then the satisfaction of Hezbollah is that the variables will be in favor of its interests and the interests of its allies regionally and not vice versa, thus it can be said that the  presidential chance of the General Aoun will increase.

The words of Al-Hariri do not discuss what Al Sayyed Hassan Nasrollah has said, but he immediately jumped to what is going on in his mind such as the bet on that the Lebanese presidency will be in its best conditions if it delays to after the developments which affect the region and which Al-Hariri is expecting what the Saudis told him that it is inevitable and that these developments will lead to the departure of the Syrian President, thus creating a pressure background on Hezbollah and its allies, so this makes the negotiation about the presidency from a position of strength according to Al-Hariri and his allies, revealing his linking and his team the Lebanese presidency with the future of the presidency in Syria, he intended to postpone the serious search about the understanding on the presidential issue with the General Michael Aoun, unless the General Aoun has accepted to negotiate, as if what is going on in Al-Hariri’s mind has been achieved, so he accepted to behave as if the Syrian President is out the presidency and that Syria has changed and that Hezbollah and its allies have received a defeat otherwise to wait till it occurs, so is there any rationality and a political reality ?

It was understandable during the beginnings of the presidential vacancy and the expectations of Saudi Arabia of what is going to be, according to its considerations in the region, that Al-Hariri will keep the presidency’s paper in his pocket, does not want to show it till the variables which the Saudis have promised him with are realized, from the failure of the negotiation which aims to accomplish the understanding about the Iranian nuclear issue, to the success in promoting Al-Nusra Front as a moderate faction of the Syrian Opposition, furthermore, the successful cooperation with Turkey to establish a buffer zone protected by an Atlantic air embargo against the Syrian aviation in the Northern of Syria, in addition to a Saudi Jordanian and Israeli cooperation in the Southern of Syria in preparation for the battle of Damascus after the failure of the expected campaign of Hezbollah and the Syrian army in Al Qalamoun by the force of Al-Fatih army which is one of the new names of Al-Nusra Front to facilitate the denial of its being as a branch of Al-Qaeda Organization which is officially adopted. All of these are culminated through a war waged by Saudi Arabia that crushes Al-Houthis in Yemen and controls its decision, as a result this makes the indications of the region move towards a weakness and a faint in the front which Hezbollah is constituting an organic part in it, and a growing in the opposed front towards the hope of controlling Syria and Yemen and weakening Iran.

Everything has happened contrary to the Saudi expectations and Al-Hariri’s dreams from signing the nuclear understanding with Iran which opposed publically by Saudi Arabia and which described it as a bad event, then it returned and praised it as a guarantor of the regional stability after the visit of the King Salman to Washington, in addition to the miserable failure in promoting Al-Nusra Front, as the failure of the attempts in establishing the buffer zone and the aerial embargo in the Northern and Southern of Syria. The resistance has reproduced new rules for the deterrence balance in the process of Shebaa Farms in response of the Israeli adventure in Al-Quneitra to draw new red lines against the resistance. Moreover the Turkish President has failed in the parliamentary elections in gaining two –thirds of votes that enable him to amend the constitution and the failure in gaining the necessary majority to form the government, the Yemen war has failed too, and Saudi Arabia has sank in the inaccessible swamp, Al-Nusra and Al-Fatih have defeated in the war of Al-Qalamoun which the last scene of it was in Zabadani.

Al-Hariri does not change his considerations; a new regional international stage has started with the new Russian military positioning in Syria through its geostrategic transition in all the security of the Mediterranean Sea, so an alliance which includes Russia, Iraq, Syria, and Iran and Hezbollah practically has been established to form the rising power for drawing the maps of the region, while the West is living a retreat and a positioning entitled the attitudes of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs at their forefronts America, Britain, and Germany that call to change the concept of the political solution in Syria with the acceptance of the partnership of the Syrian President. They know that the acceptance of the partnership in the transitional phase means the permanent partnership as illustrated at their research centers, which means the imperative triumph of the President Bashar Al-Assad in any coming presidential elections.

If Al-Hariri has liberated himself from the illusions which invade his thoughts by the Saudi illusions and dreams, and considers it on the Lebanese basis, then he will know that the cost of the understanding with the General Michael Aoun is less than the understanding tomorrow, except if he wants to believe the speech of the Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs about the threat of a military option that attacks Syria after the Russian arrival to the battlefield, or if he wants to believe the threat of the Representative of the Saudi Arabia to the United Nations against Russia by the necessity of the departure of its troops from Syria immediately, without paying attention how Saudi Arabia has changed its dealing with the corpses of the Iranian victims in the catastrophe of Al Hajj after the Iranian threat of a harsh response.

Al-Hariri can disrupt directly or through a mediator the presence of the Brigadier General Shamel Rokaz in the military institution to retain the opportunity of taking over the leadership of the army after a year, but this means breaking the relationship with the General Aoun, and bombing the opportunities of the calming, and taking the countries to a confrontation which the wisdom of wiremen may succeed in their remaining a political war, but it will become a part of the region’s wars that will end with a victorious and a defeated, as the region seemed to be driven by the Saudi policies which do not perfect the reading except in the cup of its illusions, then he will find himself after a year obliged to accept the parliamentary elections on the relativity basis that precede the presidential elections and will control the two positions of the President and the Prime Minster, with a possibility of forming the majority of the two-thirds without a need of his partnership, which means a change that transcends the costs of the cost of the understanding today.

Why Al-Hariri is showing his admiration of the fall of his friend Dawood Oglu to the abyss? Or has he enjoyed the title of a former prime minister and the living outside Lebanon?.