Two new alliances in the region and in the world

Written by Nasser Kandil,

It seemed that Washington since the two wars of Afghanistan and Iraq is no longer find in the Atlantic Alliance what can achieve its military demands as a global power, so it turned it into a European  ally, it has constituted for every issue an alliance and called it the alliance of the desires, according to it, it does not matter if some of its Atlantic allies have failed to accompany it here or some have failed to appear there, Since the fall of the Soviet Union there is nothing left called Warsaw Pact which has been ended by the fall of Berlin Wall and the demise of the system of the communists countries in Europe, so the regressive Russia behind the Union which includes it with the allied consolidated republics has rebuilt the sources of its strength in preparation for the return to the international theatre as an active power.

In the Syrian war, Russia and  American have met with two political allies, Washington has constituted what it called Syria’s friends and have succeeded in including hundred of countries to it, while Russia has tried to turn the BRICS countries on one hand  and the alliance with Iran and Shanghai’s alliance on the other hand to different types of alliances to confront the American war against Syria, and because the battlefield in politics was the Security Council, so the Russian and Chinese veto were enough to grant Moscow the winning in the first round.

The disintegration of the American alliance “Syria’s friends “ was because of the steadfastness of Syria, and practically after years of desperate attempts to overthrow Syria, where their climax was when the fleets were sent for a military strike and their return without war, the American alliance has based on a formula to fight ISIS, this includes France, Britain, Saudi Arabia, Gulf countries, Australia, Canada, and recently Turkey, it was known that this alliance works officially as an integrated frame for the military capacities and the political plan under the slogan of No for ISIS and No for the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. This means militarily and politically hitting ISIS within limits which permit of its remaining strong to overthrow Al-Assad or until the maturity of a situation that permits of bargaining on the falling of ISIS and Al-Assad together. Therefore the plan for translating this was through showing the official Al-Qaeda organization represented by Al-Nusra Front as a partner in the war against ISIS and as an acceptable alternative internationally to take over the helm in Syria.

The dilemma of this alliance after a year of its emergence was its desperate attempt to translate its efforts into victories against ISIS, which seemed that they are not achieved in Iraq despite the cooperation with the government and the army in Iraq, because of the position of this allies’ members towards the Syrian war, because the victory over ISIS in Iraq weakens the position of the organization in Syria and this is not suitable for the alliance to keep ISIS as impressed sword against Syria and its country and its bargaining on fighting it on one hand, and justifying its alliances with Al –Qaeda organization and its variations as a possible alternative to ISIS which its involvement is possible in the alliance especially Al-Nusra Front the official representative of Al-Qaeda on the other hand, this is in addition to the fact that the process in a new war against ISIS in Iraq requires an alliance with the popular crowd  which advocates the Syrian country and its president and makes a solid alliance with Iran.

It is clear that dilemma of the alliance which John Kerry has announced from Riyadh, was in how to translate the formula of the equation that there is no victory without a ground war, and who will wade it on one hand, and how will be the political solution in Syria, and who will be the partner who will represent the opposition who has an importance and can be a partner in the war against ISIS on the other hand.

It is clear that Al-Qaeda organization was the main partner for the alternative Riyadh’s alliance of the Atlantic Alliance, and the problematic relationship with Al-Qaeda has not succeeded in developing what can permit of presenting the secret ally publically as a suitable partner for the political solution and for the ground war, but the success in the process of showing and promoting in the West was neither achieved, nor the obstacle in front of the showing internationally was overcome especially according Russia, China, and Iran, Al –Qaeda is threatening the security of each one of them and its danger cannot compared with the danger of ISIS the hybrid creature, moreover the attempts of the Turks, Saudis, and the Israelis were not useful to convince the Organization of another showing process through which it denies its relation as Al Nusra Front with the mother Al-Qaeda, because this will lead it to the disintegration and makes it lose the sources of its strength.

It is clear that each one of the alliance’s parties is living a crisis that is enough to drive the attention of the alliance’s concerns, the Western partners cannot participate without repeating what America is doing, which is the raids and which remain useless, as the Americans say that about their raids and the raids of their allies, the regional allies are unable to do anything on the ground, they are occupied in their concerns especially Turkey which is occupied in an imminent electoral danger, and its ability of forming the government will be missed from the governing party, while Saudi Arabia soaked fully in the Yemeni concern.

In return of this failure and this negligence and under this title which America has chosen and made it and international challenge “ the war against terrorism” Moscow has constituted a first military alliance since the falling of Warsaw Pact a quarter a century ago, it included Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Russia and has the capacity to attract more specially China, Belarus and Venezuela as interested  countries  in fighting the terrorism seriously and supporting the equation of a strong Syrian country which is a irreplaceable recipe in confronting the terrorism, in addition to the secret ally which is  public, capable, and a source of pride for its allies it is Hezbollah.

The alliance which Moscow is constituting includes ascending young forces, having the determination and the ability of the partnership in the ground war, they have a credibility, seriousness and an interest in the war against terrorism, Russian presents to its opponents and friends a recipe of the new alliance by deeds not by words.

Two alliance are meeting on the arena of the Middle East but they are international allies, the one which will win will have the right to write the charter of the new regional system on which and through which a new world system will be constituted, two opposite alliances, one will fail and the other will have the recipe of the victory which is Syria, here is the alliance of Sham is opposite the alliance of Riyadh.