Saudi Arabia gives Lebanon a card in a big game

Written by Nasser Kandil,

There were many facts that show that there was a decision that transcends the magnitude of the Lebanese forces that has prevented occurring any violation in a settlement that keeps the Brigadier Shamel Roukoz in the heart of the military establishment, it is a settlement of modest cost for the team which belongs to Saudi Arabia because it does not mean more than keeping the chances of the remaining of Roukoz as a possible candidate for leading the army, but the parties who are fighting his arrival to this position have similar opportunities for disrupting when it is the time for maturity after a year, as long as they trust that their regional and local situations are towards improvement. Maybe his remaining is useful for them to nominate him to take over the leadership, if it was necessary to make an exchange that relieves the General Michael Aoun at that time, as long as they are confident that his presidential opportunities will oblige him to give up of the dream of Babda, it is a settlement that reserves stability in the fighting structure of  the Lebanese army if the consideration is far from the publicizing the army, because the regiment commando as an elite quality force in the army by the leadership of Roukoz is one of the deterrence and strength elements in front of those who ambush of the security of Lebanon.

The consequences of the failure of this modest settlement and the size of mobilizing which has been made to cause its failure is surpassing the political maliciousness toward the General Michael Aoun, especially that the settlement’s formation and the forces which have volunteered to market it, in addition to the positive initial positions of the concerned parties especially Al-Mostaqbal Movement say that there is something new bigger than the decision of Al-Mostaqbal Movement that led to the failure of the settlement and bearing much outcomes more than its cost. It is no longer a secret that the title of the battle of General Aoun stems from accusing the opponents of his arrival to the presidency by refusing the strong Christian and the exclusion of the board party which he represented within an extended isolation plan since 2005. Today he has a strong plea after the alignment of the Brigadier Roukoz away from the army, furthermore the speech of Aoun is approved and supported by additional Christian classes that are agitated by a blatant assault against one of the cleanest and bravest officer in the Lebanese army, in the contrary the presidential battle of Aoun is missing the plea of alignment, isolation, and the refusal of the strong Christian in addition to marginalize the broader representation among the Christians. As a result of the failure of the settlement it was clear that even if the government and the dialogue remain the position of the Free Patriotic Movement will be more solid  and the understandings with him will me more difficult, as it is clear that the country is driven to a situation of tension and chaos where there are no explanations in the local consideration which are expressed by the Deputy Walid Jumblatt who was called to Saudi Arabia maybe to explain to him the reasons which have pushed Riyadh to cause the failure of his efforts in succeeding the settlement.

Nothing but the Saudi intervention can succeed in amending the process of the settlement which Al-Mostaqbal Movement has expressed its acceptance of, it is neither possible to gather the Ministers of the President Michael Suleiman and the Phalanges and the Minister Boutros Harb to form a governmental front that bears the failure of the settlement without a decision from Riyadh, nor the Americans who have notified the local parties their encouragement of the settlement can withdraw their support and say that they are neutral, it depends on every team and its interests which means lifting the coverage off the settlement without a notable reason, this matter does not happen but for a new consideration preceded by a demand of a big size such as the Saudi demand.

What did Saudi Arabia want from freezing Lebanon on a collapsible, exhausted, and corrosive threshold with a paralyzed parliament, with a dismantling half dead government, helpless dialogue, unbridled security, and an uprising that is calling with a surprise of a dramatic event, it is a question that cannot be explained by  a Saudi attempt to a bombing which its allies are unable to bear its consequences, and cannot be explained by a bet of the changes that are made by the developments in Yemen war, or the fall of the understanding about the nuclear program which is in a way of implementation, so what can explain this is one of two things, either a bet on a common decision with the West to wade a guerilla war by Al-Qaeda organization and its variations in Syria against the Russian presence, and the preparation to make Lebanon the base of the launching of this war by dismantling its political constitutional and social structure to provide the incubator of this war, or the preparation for coming Israeli war which Saudi Arabia pledges that it will take place in different conditions of the war 2006, where it will be a partner in what is more important that accusing the resistance of taking adventure, a war that may be an Israeli Saudi war to achieve a negotiated seat in the region’s table in different conditions.

The question is why does Samir Geagea the Head of the Phalanges remain out of the government and out of the dialogue body and of what size of the regional coverage?