The fate of Al-Assad and Aoun’s equations

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

Vienna’s Conference which is related to Syria has presented a set of elements which the researchers and the scholars of the paths of the region and its expectations must know, at the forefront of these elements is the regional Western inability of achieving a military victory in Syria directly or through an intermediary that puts the capacities of the Syrian country under the control of supporters of the choice which is led by Washington. The talk becomes about the stepping down of the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad by linking the future of Syria with his departure, and the extent of his response to these calls. The continuation of the talk about this condition is an intention of the continuation of the war and attracting more extremists from the world, moreover raising the tension rate in the religious public in the West in favor of forming volunteering institutes and supplying the war in Syria with the more, but not to accelerate the departure of Al-Assad but to make the danger which affects the future of the West and its security through more flow of refugees who will blow up the stability of the demography, and the more of the terrorists who will return to control over the geography.

At Vienna’ s Conference the West at its forefront Washington has translated this equation in understanding the developments of the war on Syria, especially the only exhausting opportunity which the Russian role presents to rebuild the Syrian country on the ruin of the devastation which was caused by the bets of Washington and its allies. Thus the statement of Vienna has gone beyond the talk about the stepping down of the Syrian President, while the American has taken over the responsibility of silencing his allies, and convincing them that there is no alternative of the cooperation with the Syrian country and its president, this is in order to terminate the risks which resulted from the remaining of the Syrian war of attrition as an open wound, he is aware that the wound will be healed and the attrition will stop, either if he participates in the political coverage in the post- Russian presence stage, or he stands on the bank of the foolish bet which is represented by supporting the terrorists with arms and money and what the Russian presence provides of last opportunity by the cooperation of the fighting armies that are ready to sacrifice as a result of the war with terrorism, and which the alliance  of Washington does not have  its similarity, and the fiery ability that equal the American force that is offered by Russia, in addition to what the defeat of this cooperation means like rooting the terrorism, and its representing the challenge which is not easy to think of the ability of confronting when it arrives to Europe.

Vienna’s experience has presented an example of the new American positioning where the bet on the war decreases in favor of changing its destination and reserving a place in the victory’s train that is similar to the victory’s train on the Nazism which was reserved by the landing of the Normandy to meet the Russians in Berlin. This bet stems from the absence of the ground force which is able to take it, thus the substitute bet is to meet the victory by the political coverage and to reserve a place in the process which followed through promoting the slogan of the presidential and parliamentary elections and replacing the slogan of stepping down the president. The problem of this bet is that it occurs without determining the type of the outside interference into the elections as a supervision which will give the credibility for the elections and their consequences, but this size of interference needs a consensus of the Syrian President, and the forming of a local supervision body for the elections that leads for a settlement between the government and the opposition has to get also the approval of the president, at the same time making a presidential competitor will not be possible without granting him an asset  that enables him from wading the competition, this is not available but only through choosing a personality that is not present in the opposition body, and the attempt to give it the presidency of the settlement’s government to become a symbol of peace, reconstruction, the reconciliations and lifting the sanctions, but the nomination of the Prime Minister has to get as well the acceptance and the approval of the Syrian President.

As the Syrian President seems a fate for the Americans and their allies, the General Michael Aoun seems like that as well, the acquainted resources have reported of the participating delegations in Vienna the content of the speech of the Lebanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Gebran Bassil and what he has got of Russian Syrian and Iranian satisfaction according to his performance at the time of pulling back and forth, this has happened at the presence of the whole West and the whole Gulf, and in a way that enhances the Russian Iranian proposal, this means whatever the matters change towards more of Syrian political and military accomplishments as the expectations show, General Michael Aoun and his movement will have more support and appreciation without the interference of the regional and the international powers which are represented by Russia and Iran through nominating the General Aoun, or without being a direct presidential interference, but there will not be opportunities that make him pay the cost of any settlements, and  it cannot be expected to put him under bargaining  or under  pressures, which means practically at least enhancing his independency without becoming a candidate of  a particular party and without making negotiations that lead to  abandon him by that alliance, by the virtue of the priority of presidency, the priority is for protecting his position. This will be either to have an understanding with Aoun  or there are no settlements ‘opportunities that are related to the Lebanese presidency, the limits of this settlement will be drawn little by little by the acceptance of Aoun not by what his opponents expect through putting pressure on his allies and the allies of his allies as was reported by a source that has relations with the regional negotiations through which the Saudi Iranian meeting is postponing, if this occurs then the Gulf priorities will be much important for the two governments and more complicated than to leave them to Lebanon.

There is only one option for bringing a president for Lebanon before the Syrian coming presidential elections taking place after two years from now is the nomination of the General Aoun as a president and to have an understanding with him upon a president,  waiting for what will the Syrian presidential elections bring, although it does not seem that they will bring surprises despite all of what the opponents of Syria are preparing, Maybe the situation of the General Aoun will become better, and there will be a regional party that will regain its effectiveness regarding the Lebanese issue; it is Syria, which will say either the General Aoun or nobody.