Major Transformations a Ceasefire Will Not Modify

By Nasser Kandil

Whether an agreement which meets Al Mukawama’s (Resistance’s) conditions is reached, since it is settled that it will not be reached unless Al Mukawama’s conditions are met, despite all the US. President’s and his team’s efforts to avoid Benyamin Netanyahu this bitter cup by seeking to exchange a text for ending the war and its supplement with American Presidential undertakings, or if such longstanding cease fire is not reached, major transformations have taken place in the confrontation between Al Mukawama’s forces and the occupying entity, the impact of which will be multi-dimensional and can no longer be stopped.
Only one way exists to make the cease fire last for more than a few months: the establishment of a Palestinian State on the territory occupied in 1967, sovereign, void of settlements, with its capital East Jerusalem. This does not appear likely except after rounds of fighting which place the entity’s fate on the verge of collapse, with a collective international joint rescue endeavor, American, European, Russian, and Chinese, putting a ceiling on Palestinian rights by establishing the state, and hoping to preserve the entity’s survival. This, firstly, is a possibility which could occur or not occur, confrontations and rounds, and secondly will require an international consensus which cannot be realized absent large scale settlements over the existing open crises all related to the identity of the new world order, the conditions of which are not yet available. Thirdly it is an option conditional upon calm in the 1948 Occupied Territory during the hot confrontations which will ripen the conditions for such possibility, with an absence of any crossing by Al Mukawama forces into this territory, unlike what happened in the Toufaan (Deluge), or what is referred to as the Terror of the North and the crossing to the Galilea, with a great deal of complications obstructing the realization of all these conditions.
In all cases, we are either facing subsequent rounds if a cease fire is reached, or a prolonged round if it is not reached, but here appears the value of the changes which this 8-month war has produced. Foremost, and most important, is that in Gaza, from the time the entity was established, no force representing the full combat corps of Al Mukawama has engaged in a direct and prolonged war with the Occupation’s army, and with such ferocity, despite confrontations preceding and following the Occupation’s withdrawal from Gaza. Such prior confrontations were restricted to part of the whole in terms of geography, chronology, fire power, and human wise. And thus, in the shadows of the total magnitude of the current confrontation, geographically, chronologically, fire power and human wise, the national Palestinian liberation army is born, composed of thousands of fighters and a military and political leadership with liberation on its agenda. Officers of this army and its soldiers, reinforced with a high ideological spirit, a heroic fighting spirit, and exceptional skill and experience, having had the opportunity to sample at close range the Occupation army’s weak points, have displayed great artistry in devising modes of lethality. In the event of a cease fire, they will not need a long time to have plans for administering their war from where this round ended, of from what has been accomplished if there is no cease fire and fighting continues. In case of a cease fire, the focus is going to be once again the West Bank and the Gaza Envelope, and in absence of a cease fire, the start of the endeavor to liberate Gaza by force and the expulsion of the Occupation under fire.
On Lebanon’s front, a second liberation army has emerged, composed of tens of thousands of trained and equipped combatants, furnished with a military arsenal with secrets and surprises not known to anyone. These officers and soldiers know the Palestinian geography at a 50 km depth as well as each knows the palm of one hand, read its maps and know the names of the towns, settlements, military companies, brigades, and divisions, the names of their leaders, their phone numbers, the names of their wives and children, lines of dispersal, missions, combat methods, arms, and points of weakness and strength. Their vision of how to engage in combat is no longer rudimentary or theoretical. They have fought, for the first time since the war of attrition fought by the Egyptian army half a century ago, as an Arab army, in an organized confrontation with the Occupation’s army across the borderline, creating a real war holding the lead, and coming to the possession of a clear vision regarding three detailed levels of combat operations. First, they have learned how to drive the Occupation’s army to battle absent hearing and vision by destruction of all intelligence installations across the borderline, and electronic rooms of operation in the rear and the depth. Second, by learning how to debilitate the battalions, brigades, and divisions, destroying iron domes, and targeting of artillery sites, they have created well-calculated and studied missile launching formulas which reach targets precisely, whether they be directed anti-armor missiles, or short and mid-range advanced missiles with heavy warheads. Third, they have started upsetting the Occupation’s army’s air dominance, either by the success of the drone armament in possessing and applying target-reaching plans to impose air dominance over North Palestine, or through what the air defense system has begun revealing initially in dealing with the Occupation’s army’s advanced drones, and followed by actions of deterrence to its military air force. Thus, as long as the certainty of this army represented by Hezbollah’s force in the Islamic Resistance about its superiority in land and crossing wars remains constant, and its enemy affirms such superiority, the natural conclusion is the geography of North Palestine.
Surrounding these two national armies is a coalition. Iran: strategic depth where the regional strategic deterrence shifted since the dawn of April 14 and the deterrent response, accompanied by the flight of the Occupation’s army from a matching response resulting from an American decision to avoid a large scale war beyond the capability of both allies, American and Israeli. Syria: a strategic base which has occupied territory in the Golan, and in the shadow of these transformations will not be far from opening its front when the war is no longer one of attrition. Iraqi Mukawama: in possession of massive human and strategic armaments resources, supplying the necessities to the Syrian front and preparing to be in the front lines pending the Syrian State’s decision and the arrival of the moment of shift from defense to attack for the Axis. While in the region’s south and on the Red Sea shores, Yemen has gained an unparalleled experience in how to fight wars and how to provide support in its various and multiple forms.
Against such transformations, converse transformations become apparent: an exhausted failing worn-out army capable of killing and incapable of fighting, a human gathering gnawed by dissention, a fragmented political environment, international isolation, and worldwide popular rage. It is plausible that the American President, fearing for the entity’s future given all these reasons, launched his proposal to save the entity through a deal, which he could modify to meet Al Mukawama’s conditions in order not to lose the opportunity. It could also be that the reason Europeans hurried in declaring the need for the establishment of a Palestinian State. However, in the entity there exist racist minds, arrogance, pomposity, and an attitude of superiority which make the entity’s intransigence one of the ripening conditions for
Al Mukawama’s liberation project, without going through a large-scale war destroying cities and capitals.