September 09, 2024
By Nasser Kandil
• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opened his government meeting yesterday by commenting on the “Operation Dignity” carried out by the Jordanian martyr Maher Al-Jazi, which resulted in the deaths of three Israeli security guards. He stated, “I have issued instructions to the Israeli army and all security forces to prepare for a change in the current situation. There is no possibility of continuing under these conditions, and we are obligated to return all northern residents to their homes safely”.
• This isn’t the first time Netanyahu and other leaders of the occupying entity have hinted at military action against Lebanon and the resistance. However, this is the first time Netanyahu has carefully avoided using the word “war” or making grandiose threats like “returning Lebanon to the Stone Age” or “pushing Hezbollah beyond the Litani River”. The natural question when hearing Netanyahu talk about changing the status quo and linking it to returning settlers to their homes is how does he intend to achieve this?
• If what Netanyahu means is launching a war against the resistance, similar to the 2006 invasion where the occupying military indiscriminately bombarded southern Beirut and southern Lebanese towns, killing hundreds of civilians in an attempt to pressure the resistance, then the first question is why is he avoiding mentioning war? The second question is why is there no talk about the ambitious goals of that war, such as “returning Lebanon to the Stone Age” and “pushing Hezbollah beyond the Litani River”?
• The answer lies in what Netanyahu knows about the cost of such a war for the occupying entity. He is fully aware of the ‘destruction for destruction, depth for depth’ equation, where civilians, capitals, ports, and airports on both sides would suffer equally. Avoiding the term ‘war’ is his way of evading responsibility for bearing the enormous costs such a war would entail. As for a ground invasion, does Netanyahu truly have the military’s backing to risk such an operation? The 2006 war proved highly costly for the occupying forces, and the situation has since shifted in favor of the resistance, which has grown stronger while the occupying army has weakened, losing much of its combat spirit and readiness after an exhausting war in Gaza, where it suffered significant losses in personnel and equipment.
• Netanyahu and his military leaders might be inclined to launch a war, but they will likely prefer to talk about “operations” and “changing the situation on the front”. Should they fail, they can simply claim, “We never said we were going to wage a full-scale war”.
