September 14, 2024
By Nasser Kandil
• The Americans brought their best to the region – aircraft carriers, destroyers, warships, and submarines – believing that this show of force would serve a purpose in the ongoing war, whether as a psychological deterrent or as a tool for military action. However, since these forces failed to achieve their deterrence goals, as evidenced by the continued threats they sought to quell, and were unable to carry out any significant military actions that altered the balance of power, the question arises: why are they withdrawing?
• The Americans did not anticipate that the resistance forces would disregard their naval buildup, treating it as if it did not exist while pressing forward with their decisions to activate combat fronts in support of the Palestinian resistance in Gaza. This includes the Yemen and Red Sea front, where U.S. national security interests are at stake, and the Lebanese front, where the Americans are particularly concerned about escalation given Hezbollah’s extensive capabilities and its stated conditions for involvement, especially in the event of a potential Hamas defeat.
• The U.S. attempted to use force in Yemen to regain control of the Red Sea, but the result was a resounding failure. Yemen succeeded in preventing the passage of ships that the U.S. intended to protect, despite American naval efforts. Simultaneously, U.S. strikes intended to cripple Yemen’s ability to intervene failed, leading to painful losses, particularly to the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower.
• Hezbollah’s response to the assassination of commander Fuad Shukr left the Americans stunned, with their leadership admitting that the scale of the retaliation exceeded their expectations. This led U.S. commanders to withdraw their forces from the region to avoid being dragged into a war. They instead focused on mediation efforts, and continued providing financial, military, and political support to the Israeli army, especially during a time of U.S. presidential elections, where significant losses and major decisions are unwelcome.
• Interestingly, the withdrawal came before any retaliatory strikes from Yemen or Iran, even though the U.S. had previously stated it would assist in countering these. The geographical limitations in a confrontation with Hezbollah likely contributed to this decision. The U.S. appears to have realised that defending alongside Israel could expose its naval assets to missile and drone attacks, prompting the withdrawal to avoid becoming targets.
