October 01, 2024
By Nasser Kandil
• It is no longer feasible for the occupying army and its political leadership to avoid launching a ground military operation. After significant security and military achievements, the occupation leadership raised public expectations, both domestically and internationally, of the army’s extraordinary capability to secure victory. These inflated hopes coincided with the belief that the Resistance’s ability to confront had diminished. Meanwhile, the occupation army has not yet reached its objectives, as rockets continue to rain down on northern occupied Palestine, expanding in range and volume. This persistence highlights that separating the Lebanon and Gaza fronts and the return of settlers are still unmet goals that require further steps.
• Halting the northern rocket fire is the key objective of the Occupation Army’s military and security operations. Yet, escalating air operations alone seems unreliable for achieving this, as the rocket fire has only intensified despite the army’s increased military and security pressure. Consequently, within the entity’s media and among its public, a single refrain echoes: “It’s time for a ground operation”. Enthralled by the aura of previous military ‘successes’ and a sense of overwhelming power, the public is convinced that only a final touch – a ground offensive – is needed to secure victory.
• However, the political and military leadership know that a ground operation could squander all the previous gains and tarnish the image of military and security superiority built on air and technological dominance. Some have hinted at this, albeit subtly. Yet the leadership is cornered, unable to stop the northern rockets, and public expectations are high. They are thus compelled to proceed with a ground operation, hoping to keep it limited and measured to avoid being drawn into an open-ended ground war. Without a tangible ground victory – such as forcing the Resistance out of specific areas – any talk of halting the northern rocket fire remains just that, with no roadmap in sight.
• The entity is stuck between the deadlock of northern rockets and the fear of a disastrous failure in the ground offensive. Meanwhile, the Resistance appears prepared to turn any imminent or ongoing ground operation into a pivotal moment that reverses the course of the war imposed by the occupation in recent days. The entity has pinned its hopes on achievements as grand as reshaping the Middle East, but its success in the ground operation – particularly in pushing the Resistance back behind the Litani River – remains the key to keeping these ambitions alive.
• The Resistance’s response to the assassination of its commander, after demonstrating its power through single ballistic strikes on Jerusalem, Haifa, and Tel Aviv, was not just a show of force. It deliberately denied the entity any alternative to launching the ground operation, pushing it to expedite the invasion by intensifying rocket pressure on the north.
• The ground operation will open the door for the Resistance to unveil what it has prepared and concealed for this battle, reshaping the balance of power that the occupation had momentarily tilted in its favour.
• The U.S., has provided full cover for the operation, despite its tongue-tied hesitance, much like its stance during the Rafah assault. However, the U.S. feels compelled to maintain the appearance of advocating for a diplomatic solution, fearing the potential failure of the Israeli ground offensive. This is why talk of a diplomatic solution remains alive, with the French envoy sent to Beirut to discuss a ceasefire. All of this diplomatic activity acts as a backup plan in case the ground operation falters, but it will be dropped if the occupation forces manage to secure a meaningful victory on the ground.
