October 04, 2024
By Nasser Kandil
• At one point, certain rumours almost drove the supporters of the resistance to adopt a hostile stance toward the Lebanese Army after a false report circulated about the army’s withdrawal from its border positions. This turned out to be misinformation based on the army’s strategic redeployment, which adjusted its positions to align with the realities of war, rather than those suited for maintaining security. The subsequent news of Lebanese soldiers being martyred and wounded in the South reaffirmed the army’s national stance and its role as a partner to the resistance, paying the same price in blood – a stance solidified during the July 2006 war.
• Simultaneously, some comments and analyses aimed to sow doubts regarding the unity of Lebanon’s internal front, casting suspicion over the positions of the government and its prime minister, Najib Mikati, and even Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri. These speculations, drawing on statements from the tripartite meeting of Berri, Mikati, and Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt, questioned whether the political leadership remained committed to core principles that the resistance needed to uphold, particularly on matters like the presidential election, ceasefire negotiations, and Resolution 1701.
• In the July War, Speaker Berri managed the political and diplomatic battle in coordination with Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, in a division of roles that only became fully known years after the war ended. Back then, some accused Berri of acting independently when he agreed to the deployment of the Lebanese Army in the South, supposedly without the resistance’s consent. However, this decision had been carefully coordinated between Berri and Nasrallah as an alternative to the harsher option of Chapter VII enforcement, which would have given UNIFIL powers of inspection, pursuit, and deterrence. The war ended with the resistance victorious, and Lebanon fulfilled its obligations under Resolution 1701 by ensuring the resistance refrained from armed presence south of the Litani River, not by withdrawing entirely as some continue to claim.
• Today’s political dynamics revolve around two main objectives: the first is a call for unity against the aggression, paired with a readiness to show flexibility on the presidential issue. The key question is whether Lebanese factions that oppose the resistance-aligned bloc on the presidential file are deserving of this flexibility after the war concludes and a ceasefire is declared. The goal is for the presidency to reflect true national balances, not be decided under the pressure of Israeli fire. The national answer is undoubtedly yes, and if those factions do not respond, the initiative will stand as a well-calculated declaration of intent.
• The second focus of the political manoeuvring is Lebanon’s willingness to implement its commitments under Resolution 1701 and call for a ceasefire, without directly linking it to the situation in Gaza. Instead, this approach draws from the French-American statement signed by several Western and Arab nations, which “Israel” rejected. This plan calls for three weeks of negotiations under a ceasefire to discuss implementing Resolution 1701 for Lebanon and Resolution 2735 for Gaza. This stance is more lenient than the resistance’s position, which insists on the unity of battlefronts. However, it guarantees Lebanon international, regional, and Arab support for political, humanitarian, and relief efforts, while placing the burden on Israel to respond. It also shields the resistance by stating that until a ceasefire is achieved, no one can expect the resistance to preemptively agree to such terms, especially after it has been attacked, its leader killed, and its people displaced.
• As this political movement unfolds, the internal and international arenas calm, allowing the resistance to focus on its honourable battle at the frontlines. The resistance knows that true politics are forged on the battlefield and that what happens there will shape the political landscape that follows. Along the path to reshaping the field, the resistance will have relieved itself of internal and external pressures.
