October 09, 2024
By Nasser Kandil
• Amid whispers from critics and impatient voices questioning the political and diplomatic manoeuvring of Speaker Nabih Berri, particularly regarding Hezbollah’s stance on the intertwined Lebanon-Gaza front, Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary-General, Sheikh Naim Qassem, delivered a timely and thoughtful address. His speech dispelled any doubts about the coordination between Berri’s efforts and Hezbollah’s leadership, recalling the long-standing synergy between Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Speaker Berri.
• Sheikh Qassem emphasised the deep bond between the two leaders, referring to Berri as the “older brother”, a term Nasrallah frequently used to express the profound respect and trust he holds for Berri, which has been mirrored by Hezbollah’s fighters. Their relationship, founded on mutual confidence, has always been characterised by an unspoken alignment, even without the need for prior coordination in managing a united front.
• A similar situation arose in 2006 during the July War, when many resistance supporters were left confused, and Hezbollah’s adversaries tried to exploit the situation. At that time, Speaker Berri announced that one of the conditions for a ceasefire would be the deployment of large units of the Lebanese Army in southern Lebanon, especially in the UNIFIL area of operations. This came after years of absence since the 1982 Israeli invasion, and despite President Emile Lahoud’s refusal in 1993 to send the army into resistance-held areas still under occupation, Hezbollah was initially perceived to oppose this deployment. However, after the war, it was revealed that Nasrallah and Berri had coordinated in advance, agreeing to counter proposals for international forces, disarming the resistance, and imposing Chapter VII mandates. They instead promoted a plan of deploying the Lebanese Army, enhancing UNIFIL, and ensuring Hezbollah remained armed but discreet south of the Litani River – portraying it as Berri’s initiative that Hezbollah accepted as a middle ground, rather than a Hezbollah-driven solution.
• Berri’s current efforts focus on tying the ceasefire and the application of Resolution 1701 to the context of its original inception and implementation, emphasising Hezbollah’s long-standing commitment to avoiding armed appearances prior to the war. However, some are suspicious of Berri’s silence on linking the Lebanon-Gaza fronts, a suspicion that mirrors concerns raised during the 2006 war.
• Sheikh Qassem, speaking for Hezbollah, reinforced the party’s commitment to the unity of the Lebanon and Gaza fronts. He signalled no opposition to the meeting chaired by Berri, which included Prime Minister Najib Mikati and political leader Walid Jumblatt, calling for a ceasefire as a precondition to further discussions. Qassem reiterated that Hezbollah agrees that a ceasefire must come first. This leaves the political-diplomatic efforts navigating between three spheres: Hezbollah’s insistence on unified fronts, Berri’s prioritisation of a ceasefire on the Lebanese front, and a third shared ground represented by Lebanon’s acceptance of the French-American proposal, which calls for a three-week ceasefire in Lebanon to negotiate the implementation of Resolution 1701 for Lebanon and Resolution 2735 for Gaza – essentially linking the two fronts.
• Washington’s provocative response to Qassem’s speech, dismissing Hezbollah’s defensive posture instead of encouraging it, indicates that the U.S. understands that the coordination between Hezbollah and Berri places the onus on Washington and Israel, showing that the real obstacle to a ceasefire is Israel, not Lebanon. With Israel now committed to a ground incursion, the outcome of this invasion is in Hezbollah’s hands. Should Tel Aviv eventually agree to a ceasefire, the balance of power will have shifted further against it, rendering Resolution 1701 obsolete.
• Hezbollah continues to dominate the battlefield, and its linking of fronts is a part of this strategy, waiting to bring Israel to the table for a ceasefire. By that time, the negotiation will revolve around not separating the fronts, but rather on Israel and the U.S. needing to connect them to exit a war that has become a strategic burden.
• Domestically, Berri’s manoeuvring offers an opportunity for the Lebanese to unite against the Israeli aggression. However, Washington’s response, pushing for a presidential election under the pressure of Israeli fire, exposes a calculated agenda – seeking a deal where a ceasefire is traded for a compliant president aligned with American interests. Berri’s proactive strategy, supported by Hezbollah, aims to preempt this gambit, based on the principle of securing Israeli agreement to a ceasefire before entering any negotiations on other matters.
