October 11, 2024
Nasser Kandil
• The resistance forces have never denied the occupying entity’s success in delivering painful blows, particularly targeting the resistance in Lebanon’s infrastructure, leadership, and base, even to the point of assassinating its commander. These continuous strikes, many of which would not have been possible or successful without full American involvement, inflicted significant damage and harm. The resistance acknowledges this suffering, but in the context of war – not emotional pain – the real measure of these achievements lies in whether they shift the balance of the conflict. As Lebanon’s front remains active, with rockets targeting settlements and occupation sites in northern Palestine, and the resistance maintaining its defence against ground incursions, has the occupying entity managed to disrupt or harm either of these critical pillars?
• The resistance in Lebanon also acknowledges that by opening a supporting front for Gaza, it has sacrificed certain deterrence elements that previously protected its base and the surrounding areas. Fear of retaliation against Beirut and Lebanon’s vital institutions for targeting the depths of the occupying entity has forced the resistance to take responsibility, linking attacks on the entity’s core to possible retaliation against the Lebanese capital. Moreover, the resistance concedes that the blows it has sustained have temporarily delayed the development of a viable deterrent capable of immediately countering threats to Lebanon’s civilians and infrastructure. However, this delay is not indefinite, as the emerging equation involving Haifa, Safed, Tiberias, Nahariya, and Acre – as demonstrated by the latest iteration of the Hudhud drone – proves to be a powerful response that will soon bear fruit.
• Meanwhile, for the past two weeks, the occupying entity’s leadership has had little to offer regarding the course of the war other than boasting about assassinations, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did, or flaunting images and videos of their ground operations. The latest farcical display by the occupation’s army spokesperson showed off individual weapons, what they claimed to be a tunnel, and the infiltration of a house on the border. They even staged the raising of a flag after sneaking behind international forces to capture the commemorative photo, then swiftly retreated. Yet the real challenges facing the occupying army are clear: what are they waiting for, having mobilised all their combat divisions along the Lebanese border and declared the objective of pushing the resistance beyond the Litani River? What is stopping them from halting the resistance’s rockets in northern Palestine? What happened to their promise to retaliate against Iran – ten days ago?
• The theatrical lies about American-Israeli disagreements over a response to Iran are now painfully obvious and nauseating. Their real function is twofold: first, to buy time and justify hesitation born out of fear of the consequences, and second, to frame the decision to avoid targeting Iran’s critical sites – as it would provoke an unbearable response – as a result of U.S. pressure. This serves to craft a favourable image for Washington, portraying the occupying entity as capable of action but refraining out of respect for American demands, while denying Iran the appearance of strength that would force both Washington and Tel Aviv into consultations to prevent catastrophic consequences for the entity, U.S. bases, and the global energy economy.
• Both Israel and the U.S. are trapped. The military clashes on the Lebanese border and in Jabaliya and Khan Younis in Gaza indicate that the resistance holds the upper hand in ground engagements. Whether the assault on Iran comes sooner or later, it is certain that Iran holds the initiative, and its response will match the scale of the attack, once again shifting the momentum back in its favour. Simultaneously, resistance rockets continue to rain down on northern Palestine, underscoring the failure of the occupying entity’s objectives. All the strikes they boast about have failed to achieve their aims. The key issue remains, as Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah pointed out: the fate of settlers fleeing from northern settlements. As more rockets fall in greater numbers and over longer ranges, so too does the number of displaced settlers grow. As Sayyed Hassan said, the answer lies within the nights, days, and the battlefield.
