November 05, 2024
By Nasser Kandil
Iran does not act on impulse in politics – neither in anger nor in empathy. Like a master rug weaver, the Iranian approach is patient and measured, with every move planned and timed. When Iran practised ‘strategic patience’, it was not out of reluctance to respond to provocations or hope for negotiation, but because it needed time to quietly build its strength and avoid being drawn prematurely into a confrontation for which it was not yet prepared.
What’s new is not Iran’s awareness that the core battle over the Middle East, or “West Asia” as it calls it – the battle for the centre and heart of the old and new worlds – is ultimately a struggle between itself and the United States. Nor is it a revelation that the occupying entity’s war against the Resistance Axis is ultimately aimed at Iran, as the strategic backbone of that alliance. Iran has long understood that any blow to the Palestinian resistance or Lebanon’s resistance power weakens its own strategic vision, compromises its commitment to the Palestinian cause and it’s ability to support resistance, and undermines it’s credibility and excellence which surpassed the Arab and Islamic worlds – an excellence produced under the banners of Palestine and resistance.
What’s new is Iran’s awareness that American decline is sharply accelerating and, with it, an increasing ferocity in U.S. tactics. Iran recognizes the rising powers opposed to U.S. hegemony that is both powerful and real marked by the ascent of Russia and China. However, their approach has lacked the immediate incentives needed to firmly counter U.S. dominance. Where this shift has occurred, Iran has often provided the spark, as seen in the Syrian war with Russia’s significant involvement. Now, Iran sees this war as pivotal in accelerating American decline, encouraging greater Russian and Chinese engagement against the U.S., and demanding a different, more decisive Iranian presence.
More significantly, Iran has now completed its preparations. It appears to have reached a critical point in its nuclear program, including the potential to pursue nuclear weapons if threats continue. Its missile program has advanced in both technical sophistication and range, and its military and public support have been readied for sustained conflict. Iran’s consistent actions reveal a determination to intensify its readiness, preparing for a historic moment – one that may not result in an actual war, but that must be approached as if war is inevitable.
Iran is behaving as though it is heading toward its “grand war”. The recent martyrdom of figures like Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has likely accelerated this shift, underscoring the need for Iran to fill the void left in the regional and international landscape – a gap that starkly demonstrates the lengths to which the Americans and Israelis will go to avoid admitting defeat.
