November 07, 2024
Nasser Kandil
First, it’s worth recalling that the newly re-elected U.S. President Donald Trump is also the former President Trump. If memory serves, he is the one who ordered the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, a commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps. But his successor, outgoing President Joe Biden, along with his defeated Vice President Kamala Harris, have gone further, overseeing the assassinations of resistance leaders in Lebanon and Palestine, including a major act of violence: the killing of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of Hezbollah. And if anyone expects Trump to grant Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu something Biden withheld, they should ask themselves what, if anything, Biden actually denied him. Biden has already given Netanyahu all he could short of deploying a million U.S. soldiers for a regional invasion. Does anyone seriously believe Trump would do that?
Those amplifying the connection between Trump and Netanyahu, predicting greater challenges ahead, should remember that during Trump’s first term, Iran successfully shot down a U.S. RQ-170 surveillance drone, and Trump refrained from retaliation, citing a lack of American casualties. Trump was interested in negotiations, convinced sanctions were producing results, not in escalation. And for those who say Gulf states are celebrating Trump’s return as a counterweight to Iran, they might recall New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman’s famous article after Yemeni missiles and drones struck Saudi Aramco in 2019. What did Friedman report?
Friedman’s now-famous piece described how Saudi officials, calling Washington for strategic support, found Trump focused on obtaining Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s cell number. If we translate Trump’s message to the Gulf into plain language, it would go: “I’m interested in selling you our weapons, not using them on your behalf. And don’t forget to stay at my hotel the next time you’re in D.C. The booking office is open”. The Saudis and Emiratis received the message clearly, and they, too, started looking for Rouhani’s number – and Qatar’s leader, an Iranian ally. After the Aramco attack, Trump even declared his desire to “definitely avoid war”. Once again, if we translate Trump’s message, it would say: “America will maintain sanctions on Iran but will not join Israel or certain Arab states in regime change or military action against Iran”. Friedman concluded that Netanyahu had misjudged Trump’s intentions: “We’re awash in oil and gas. We’re not fighting other people’s wars in the Middle East”. It seems the Iranians, despite having no embassy in Washington, understood Trump better than his regional allies.
Trump might have given Netanyahu his signature when the latter wanted to annex more occupied territories, but this only weakened the U.S. image that Democrats had tried to establish through its ostensible neutrality, commitment to negotiations, and support for a two-state solution. In reality, Israel gained nothing tangible, as Trump was unwilling to risk even a single American soldier to protect these territories. Post-Gaza and Lebanon, the only thing Trump can offer Netanyahu is to press him for a swift victory or a settlement that elevates Washington’s position in the region. If anyone deserves congratulations for Trump’s victory, it certainly isn’t Netanyahu, who will likely rediscover Friedman’s old message. Perhaps Russian President Vladimir Putin deserves the congratulations, as Trump’s victory could spell the weakening of NATO and the departure of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria may be in line for condolences, as Trump is unlikely to support them any more than he would support Zelensky.
The essence of Trump’s vision, “Trumpism”, remains domestic rather than international, advocating for “America First” over globalisation. As the author of ‘The Art of the Deal’ Trump might strike a bargain with the intelligence community and Department of Defense to outline a crisis management policy. With the Middle East conflicts having reached an impasse that would demand a massive American military intervention to push further, Netanyahu may find that his military has hit its ceiling and that time is working against him. The dealmaker Trump may even seek Russian mediation with Iran rather than risking nuclear escalation.
Trump’s presidency could, in fact, bring respite for Syria and Russia, likely impacting the balance in regional conflicts and strengthening the position of resistance movements. Ending U.S. protection of the Kurdish enclave, moving toward a Syrian withdrawal, and negotiating with Russia to combat terrorism and manage Syria’s political solution could accelerate Turkey’s withdrawal as well. Trump is likely to impose tariffs against China, viewing economic competition with Beijing, revitalising American industry, expanding consumer production, and strengthening supply chains as his top priorities. He seems set on turning his back on NATO, seeking an understanding with Russia, and managing tensions with Iran as a formula to avoid further wars.
Those most deserving of congratulations are the Arab and Muslim communities in America, alongside activists supporting Palestine. They have emerged as a powerful force in holding the Democratic Party accountable for its complicity in the brutal killings in Palestine and Lebanon. Their goal was never about Trump winning; some may have even supported him, but what mattered most was this powerful act of retribution against war criminals Biden and Harris. The message is clear: “You won’t secure our votes by merely warning us of a worse option – you are the worst option”. And if Trump commits actions worthy of punishment, they will not hesitate to hold him accountable.
