November 09, 2024
By Nasser Kandil
• Major questions await U.S. President Donald Trump in the Middle East, and his options are narrowing. The first choice is a path of destructive wars that would derail all his dreams of economic revival and fulfilling his campaign promises. This is especially true since it is no longer feasible for the wars of Benjamin Netanyahu to rely solely on Israeli power. America’s role is no longer just to offer support and refrain from intervening with pressure; now, it is required to directly engage in the war that has already exhausted Tel Aviv’s resources and options. Alternatively, the second option is to pursue a long-term truce in the region, which would establish the current balance of power without achieving the high objectives Netanyahu has set, objectives he hoped to accomplish by drawing America into the wars. This so-called “end of the war” truce, which Netanyahu has rejected and will only accept if forced to do so, would allow Trump to begin programming his governance plan and economic priorities.
• Outside the Middle East, Trump can pursue his foreign policy vision with fewer obstacles. He has no desire for war, especially with China or anyone else, but he is determined to close U.S. markets to foreign goods in order to revive American production. Competition from Chinese goods, or even American products made in China, stands in the way of the economic resurgence he has promised. Tensions with China are therefore inevitable, as Trump pushes for a shift away from free markets and liberal economic principles toward a state-driven economy and protectionist tariffs, inspired by protectionist, state-controlled, and socialist economic models.
• The clearest aspect of Trump’s foreign policy vision is his inclination toward understanding with Russia. This includes abandoning support for Ukraine’s president, reconsidering NATO’s role as a framework worth risking conflict with Russia over, and being open to dividing influence in Europe. Trump has openly dismissed the Kurdish-led SDF and sees no reason to strain relations with Turkey over supporting a Kurdish enclave in Syria. He has previously expressed a desire for an understanding with Russia, granting it control over counterterrorism efforts in Syria, the withdrawal of U.S. troops, and a political resolution led by Moscow.
• Russia’s place among the victors is clear, but the implications for allies cannot be ignored. If Trump moves forward with the policies he has outlined, Syria stands at the heart of this victory, signalling an imminent U.S. and eventual Turkish withdrawal. With Russia overseeing the political resolution, Syria’s recovery would accelerate, carrying ripple effects for Lebanon, Iraq, and the region. The Syrian conflict represents a shared Russo-Iranian political, security, and economic investment – potentially opening a pathway for calmer U.S.-Iranian negotiations through the Russian channel.
