November 13, 2024
By Nasser Kandil
• Benjamin Netanyahu sold settlers the illusion of waiting for the American election results and the potential victory of President Donald Trump to shift the military dynamics, especially after the ground operation failed to secure a breakthrough that would enable negotiations from a position of strength. The balance created by the resistance’s strikes into the heart of the occupying entity instilled fear, anxiety, and, eventually, a sense of futility in the war’s effectiveness, despite the disparity in casualty and destruction figures compared to the occupation’s strikes. The essence of this waiting game is premised on the prospect of a U.S.-led war against Iran.
• With Trump’s victory, the picture has started to become clearer. The president-elect’s priorities centre on fulfilling his economic campaign promises, which do not align with entangling the U.S. in further conflicts. Trump’s stance has been to withdraw from igniting more wars and to extinguish existing ones, yet this does not equate to abandoning full support for the occupying entity – whether in terms of arms, financing, or diplomatic, legal, and political protection. However, the Biden administration has already provided nearly every form of support possible, leaving little that a Trump administration could add. As for direct involvement in a war, it exceeds the capacity of any president, be it Biden or Trump.
• Negotiations proceed based on power dynamics, and the current balance does not grant any concessions to the occupier, regardless of American pressure, deception, or manipulation. For negotiations to yield gains for the occupying entity, it must first alter the power balance, which would allow the American negotiator to push for concessions from Lebanon. Lebanon, however, remains steadfastly committed to Resolution 1701- neither adding nor subtracting – an adherence that would require Israel to relinquish advantages it gained by violating Lebanese airspace, waters, and holding onto occupied Lebanese land.
• Expanding the ground operation, rather than ending it, became the sole remaining path, a path opposed by the Minister of Defense and rejected by the Chief of Staff. This led to the dismissal of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and the coercion of the Chief of Staff under the threat of removal, forcing his compliance. The discourse has now shifted to renewing and expanding the ground operation.
• The occupying army has depleted its offensive power over seven weeks of ground warfare. The 36th and 98th Divisions – the backbone of any ground operation, particularly the Golani Brigade and the 7th Armored Brigade from the 36th Division, and the Paratroopers and Special Units Brigades in the 98th Division – have sustained significant damage. Any renewed and expanded ground operation would heavily rely on these two divisions and their brigades.
• The resistance welcomes a ground operation and prefers it over competing in artillery fire. Despite its superior firepower in targeting military objectives, the resistance suffers from the casualties and destruction inflicted upon its people and cannot match the occupier in that domain.
• If talk of a renewed offensive becomes reality, we may witness major battles that will decisively secure the next victory for the resistance.
