November 26, 2024
By Nasser Kandil
Following the wave of right-wing ascendance across traditional European nations – what former U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld once labeled “Old Europe” – defined by slogans rejecting European integration, NATO, and advocating a return to sovereign borders, local economies, and national currencies, attention has shifted to Eastern Europe, or “New Europe”. The Americans initially viewed this region as a dynamic alternative, free from the constraints of independence, and firmly anchored in the U.S.-led hegemonic order.
The common thread in this accelerating transformation is the prioritisation of national interests rooted in geopolitical realities rather than ideological visions or global political projects that dominated the post-Soviet era. When Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidency under the banner of “America First” over globalization, and “Great America” over “America the Great”, pledging to dismantle NATO, it signals the waning era of parties, leaders, and governments aligned with American policies. Instead, the stage is set for parties, leaders, and governments that echo Trump’s approach in their own countries, heralding movements like “France First”, “Italy First”, “Germany First” and soon, “Ukraine First”.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s recent initiative to contact and begin negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine marks the beginning of the end of the Ukrainian war, despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s anger and French President Emmanuel Macron’s reproach.
The next pivotal development unfolds in Romania, a Black Sea neighbor to Ukraine, and an active member of both the EU and NATO. In a stunning first-round presidential election outcome, Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, a staunch supporter of traditional American and European policies, garnered less than 20% of the vote. In contrast, pro-Russian candidate Călin Georgescu emerged as the frontrunner.
Regardless of the final election results – likely shaped by alliances and interventions reminiscent of France’s second-round parliamentary elections, where extraordinary coalitions blocked the right-wing’s assured majority – the undeniable truth is the rise of the French right. Its eventual triumph is merely a matter of time. Similarly, Romania’s geopolitical position, once part of the Soviet-aligned Eastern Bloc, suggests that Romania, Ukraine, and other former Soviet or Eastern Bloc states may realign with Russia. This shift would reflect pragmatic national interest considerations, rooted in national security imperatives and the demand for accessible, affordable energy as a cornerstone of sustainable development.
