December 13, 2024
Nasser Kandil
• One dimension of the Syrian scene is the strategic loss suffered by the resistance axis with the weakening of a pivotal frontline state like Syria, which historically played a significant role in supporting and hosting resistance movements. While this loss is symbolically substantial, its practical impact is limited. The resistance, particularly in Lebanon, has outgrown its need for direct support or patronage. It now produces its own weapons, including drones that demonstrated exceptional effectiveness in the recent war, and possesses a formidable stockpile of precision missiles, of which only a fraction has been used. Additionally, the war has revealed the professionalism, efficiency, and skill of the resistance’s ground forces.
However, there is another dimension to the Syrian scene, particularly from an Israeli perspective: the erosion of the sense of security that existed despite Syria being a frontline state led by a president Israel deems a “radical danger”. Israeli concerns now center on a sensitive front with a new governing system in Syria that expresses a desire for calm but faces challenges in establishing control – challenges that Israeli institutions acknowledge could take years to address.
• American analysts are preoccupied with finding a formula to avoid what they call the “black hole” of the Syrian situation, centered on the inevitable Kurdish-Turkish collision and Washington’s reluctance to decisively favor one side over the other. The U.S. deep state prioritises its relationship with the Kurds over Turkey, while the visible state maintains a commitment to Turkey’s regional role and NATO membership.
During a visit to eastern Syria, the head of U.S. Central Command voiced concerns about the resurgence of ISIS and emphasised the need for cooperation with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Simultaneously, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, traveling from Tel Aviv – a hub for meticulous security calculations – focused his remarks on the importance of collaborating with the SDF, even while addressing future negotiations to end the war in Gaza. Similarly, the U.S. Secretary of Defense, speaking from Washington, highlighted cooperation with the SDF while neglecting to mention Turkey.
• The U.S.’s vulnerable flank lies in the volatile Turkish-Kurdish relationship, while Israel’s soft spot is the potential resurgence of resistance operations along the Syrian front. In the past, resistance factions refrained from launching attacks from Syrian territory out of consideration for Syria’s stability and to avoid Israeli retaliation. This restraint may no longer apply given the presence of Palestinian camps in Syria, including Islamist factions that could be difficult to control amid the dominant Islamic atmosphere in the Syrian scene.
Israeli analysts warn that pressuring the new Syrian leadership toward peace with Israel – modeled after Egyptian and Jordanian arrangements – could backfire. Such moves might embolden Palestinian factions to disregard Syrian stability altogether. Alternatively, leaving room for Syria to maintain a hostile posture toward Israel and demand the return of the Golan Heights could compel the new Syrian leadership to align itself with the resistance.
• Hamas’s welcoming of Syria’s new trajectory as a “promise toward Jerusalem and Palestine” raises another question: Why wouldn’t Damascus, sharing Hamas’s cultural and political ethos, host Hamas leaders who currently lack a base in the region? Tel Aviv, aware that it offers no solutions to the Palestinian cause, also knows it closes all avenues for moderation or compromise for Palestinian leaders, particularly Hamas. The closer these leaders are to a supportive and legitimate environment near Palestine’s borders, the greater Israel’s anxiety. Similarly, pressuring the new Syrian leadership to distance itself from Palestine increases its vulnerability and undermines its efforts to establish a state grounded in its identity, where Palestine holds an immutable place in the Islamic identity.
• Despite their attempts to project strength, Washington and Tel Aviv are haunted by the specter of these “black holes” in the evolving Syrian landscape. Thus far, efforts to manage this vulnerability remain fraught with risks.
