December 14, 2024
By Nasser Kandil
• Today, an international regional meeting on Syria is being held in Amman at the level of foreign ministers. Participants include representatives from the United States, Turkey, the European Union, the UN envoy, and countries such as Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar. Notably absent for the first time in discussions on Syria are Russia and Iran, which may signal the end of their roles in the Syrian context.
• The meeting, initiated by the U.S. through Jordanian and Iraqi channels, is being convened under the framework of UN Resolution 2254. It also features broad Arab participation, suggesting a focus on curbing Turkey’s unilateral dominance in Syria. The resolution calls for an inclusive government representing all Syrian factions, paving the way for Kurdish partnership in a model resembling Iraq’s federal system. This would allow Kurdish groups to retain control over their oil resources and maintain independent armed forces within a unified state – a concept seemingly designed to leverage Arab concerns over Turkey’s expansionist ambitions.
• Turkish President Recep Erdogan’s recent rhetoric, warning of the risks of a world war that could redraw borders, appears to raise the stakes ahead of the meeting. His assertion that Aleppo, Hama, and Damascus could become part of Turkey, like Gaziantep and Urfa, underscores Turkey’s strategic intentions. Erdogan framed his position around Turkey’s security concerns over a potential Kurdish enclave, pledging to combat it, while also reiterating his commitment to fighting ISIS – a topic likely to dominate today’s discussions.
• Though absent from the Amman meeting, Israel’s interests are implicitly represented through the U.S. presence. These interests include enforcing the 1974 disengagement agreement and ensuring Syria remains demilitarised. Furthermore, Israel’s strategic goal of incorporating Syria into the Abraham Accords framework through normalisation – without relinquishing the Golan Heights – poses a significant challenge for Arab participants.
• The meeting could fail, leading to prolonged chaos in Syria, or it could succeed, albeit at a heavy price. Success might mean a governance model for Syria akin to Iraq’s, either through de facto division under the guise of federalism or through power-sharing based on sectarian quotas.
• If the meeting achieves consensus, the UN envoy will be tasked with convening a follow-up session for the factions agreed upon to represent the diverse components of Syrian society. This would aim to form a transitional government responsible for drafting a new constitution and preparing for elections. The transitional government is expected to be established before March 1, marking the end of the interim government’s mandate.
