December 16, 2024
By Nasser Kandil
• Israel’s unchecked advance in Syria reveals two key motivations. On one hand, it reflects the intrinsic expansionist drive of the occupying entity, as evidenced by its declared maps. On the other, it underscores a need to restore the image of Israeli strength after the glaring weaknesses exposed during the wars in Lebanon and Gaza.
• When juxtaposing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statements – tying any reconsideration of Israeli expansion in Syria to the establishment of a legitimate constitutional government – with the most optimistic timelines for such a government’s formation, the implications are stark. The transitional government tasked with overseeing the constitution and elections would require at least 18 months. Add three months for a provisional government and another three for conducting elections and forming a new government to take over, and we are looking at a minimum of two years. During this period, the Israeli military will have free rein in Syria. Even after this timeline, there is no guarantee of cessation; it is more likely that Israel will set conditions for negotiations. These conditions may include the legitimisation of its expansion or parts of it, along with demands to formally recognise its annexation of the Golan Heights.
• Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s Foreign Minister and representative of the current mandate over Syria, recently stated that the emerging Syrian government is not expected to confront Israel directly. However, he stressed that Israel must also consider the fragile state of this nascent government. Yet Fidan knows all too well that the Aqaba Declaration, which he helped draft alongside several Arab states in partnership with the U.S., fell on deaf ears in Tel Aviv. Netanyahu is fully aware that American discourse regarding the occupying entity lacks sincerity except in private meetings with Israeli leaders or during Security Council votes concerning Israel. Should the Aqaba participants seek a UN Security Council statement condemning Israeli actions, they will inevitably face a ready U.S. veto.
• The Syrian people now stand at a historic crossroads in the face of the Israeli challenge. These are days that history will record- day by day – just as it chronicled their ancestors’ struggles, later celebrated by their descendants. History tells us that French incursions into Syria were met with armed resistance from the very first day. As for the Israeli incursion, while the exact number of days before Syrian resistance emerges remains unknown, it is eagerly awaited. The Syrian people watch with bated breath, ready for the moment when history once again records their defiance.
