December 28, 2024
Nasser Kandil
• The Yemeni-Israeli front has become the principal battlefield for Benjamin Netanyahu, now serving as the sole source of support the resistance axis offers to Gaza. Over the past two weeks, Yemeni missiles and drones have turned into a daily reality for residents of Tel Aviv, forcing millions into shelters. Israeli air defenses have been decisively proven ineffective in countering Yemen’s attacks, according to statements by Israeli military officials, including former air defense commanders. Tzvika Haimovitch, the former head of the air defense system, noted that the recent developments demonstrate the Houthis’ ability to target central Israel, a significant escalation from their previous strikes limited to Eilat. He also emphasised that the technical modifications introduced by the Houthis to their missiles have increased their lethality and posed new challenges to Israeli defenses. Similarly, Major General Ran Kochav, another former air defense commander, told Channel 13 that recent interception failures stem not only from advanced technologies or hypersonic missiles but from a “double failure” in interception operations.
• What was once intermittent strikes has evolved into a sustained campaign, with Yemen achieving a strategic milestone by closing the Red Sea to ships heading toward the occupying entity, effectively shutting down Eilat’s port and forcing its operating company to declare bankruptcy. The challenges posed by Yemeni missile and drone strikes deep into the heart of the entity come in the wake of the Lebanese front’s ceasefire and significant developments in Syria. These developments signal Yemen’s readiness to compensate for the absence of other Resistance Axis members on support fronts, initiating a highly effective war of attrition against the occupying entity. Israeli analysts unanimously recognise this reality. Nir Dvori, Channel 12’s military correspondent, stated that Israeli assessments indicate the country has entered a war of attrition that could last weeks, with Yemen continuing its daily barrage of missiles and drones, overwhelming Israel’s defensive systems. Gulf expert Yoel Guzansky warned that Yemen is leveraging the situation to further exhaust Israel, fully aware of the impact these attacks have on Israeli politics and society. He added, “Israel is gradually falling into Yemen’s trap, and I fear this war may end in our defeat”.
• The alarm expressed by Israeli observers and analysts over the confrontation with Yemen, coupled with their lack of confidence in the effectiveness of their prime minister’s threats, underscores Yemen’s unique position within the resistance axis. Analysts attribute this to several factors: the U.S. and U.K.’s acknowledgment of the futility of a war of attrition against Yemen and Yemen’s entry into this conflict after 15 grueling months that have drained Israel’s endurance. Channel 14 highlighted the weak U.S. support for Israel in this conflict, with political correspondent Tamir Morag pointing to two main issues: the Biden administration’s reluctance to escalate offensive operations against Yemen and a shortage of interceptor missiles, exacerbating Israel’s difficulty in countering Yemeni attacks. Meanwhile, Dani Citrinowicz, an expert on Iran and the Resistance Axis at the National Security Research Center, stressed that the complete shutdown of Eilat’s port due to Houthi naval attacks represents a severe blow to Israel, signaling its diminished deterrence capabilities compared to the past.
• A closer examination of Yemen’s position compared to other support fronts, particularly Lebanon, reveals that Yemen enters the war of attrition after Gaza and Lebanon have waged their own heavy and prolonged campaigns for over a year, severely weakening the occupying entity and its army. Yemen’s geographic distance provides a tactical advantage, as Israeli warplanes and reconnaissance drones cannot maintain constant presence over Yemen as they do over Gaza and Lebanon. Similarly, Israeli raids on Yemen face logistical and operational constraints. Yemen’s vast area of 550,000 square kilometers, its population of 35 million, and its unified resolve behind the Palestinian cause further enhance its position. For years, Yemenis have demonstrated their unwavering support for Palestine in public arenas, showcasing a level of cohesion between the people and their leadership unmatched elsewhere. Yemen also boasts advanced technological capabilities, with The Washington Post quoting an Israeli official who described Yemen’s technological prowess as “surprising”.
• Netanyahu has initiated a path toward war with Yemen, but bringing it to an end is no longer within his control. With each passing day, it becomes increasingly evident that the only viable way to address the Yemeni challenge is by pursuing an agreement with the Gaza Resistance.
