December 31, 2024
By Nasser Kandil
• Rarely in the region’s history has the transition from one year to the next been marked by such a torrent of dramatic, unexpected, and monumental events, coupled with looming uncertainties about potentially even greater upheavals ahead.
• The first of these major surprises arrived just before 2024: the ‘Al-Aqsa Flood’ operation, which shocked the region and the world with its scale and impact. It was followed by the mobilisation of the resistance axis, most notably from Lebanon. However, 2024 brought its own staggering developments, including the loss of key leaders. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and many senior figures of the Lebanese Resistance were martyred, as were Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the Flood, and earlier, Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’s political bureau.
• Adding to the seismic nature of the year was the ‘Syrian Earthquake’, whose aftershocks continue to reshape the region’s geopolitical balance. Syria, with its unparalleled magnetism for global powers, became the stage where the United States, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Israel, extremist factions, and resistance groups converged. The earthquake toppled the previous regime under Turkish auspices, creating a new regional and international equation.
• Amid this cascade of upheavals, Yemen emerged as the unexpected story of 2024. First, it challenged American dominance over the Red Sea. Then, it succeeded in enforcing its will by blocking ships destined for ports under the control of the occupying entity. Yemen further defied U.S. and Israeli air defenses, transforming into a significant source of Israeli anxiety. This escalation holds the potential to ignite a broader conflict in the Gulf, disrupt oil routes, and paralyse global trade.
• The coming year is poised to be Yemen’s year, but also that of Gaza and Lebanon. In Gaza, a potential agreement is on the horizon, while in Lebanon, the implementation of an ongoing deal remains fragile and could collapse altogether.
• The year 2025 will also be defined by the return of President-elect Donald Trump, who may shape the world’s future along two divergent paths: either intensifying wars or extinguishing their flames to realize his promise of focusing on “America First” instead of draining resources in pursuit of “America the Great”.
• In Lebanon, confusion and anticipation reign. Some predict the Resistance’s end and the loss of its arms, while others assert its victory and resilience. Like a phoenix rising from the ashes, the resistance has reportedly rebounded from devastating blows, preventing the occupying entity from advancing along the border and imposing new rules of engagement that extended fire deep into Israeli territory. This forced the occupying leadership to accept a ceasefire under the terms of UN Resolution 1701.
• If 2024 was the year of earthquakes, 2025 is set to be the year of aftershocks, demanding vigilance and reflection. The Lebanese presidential election, slated for the year’s opening days, could offer key insights into the year’s trajectory. A postponement would signify one direction, a successful election another, while the identity of the elected president could speak volumes about Lebanon’s future.
