The Deception to Steal a Victory Narrative as an Alternative to the South

January 14, 2025

Nasser Kandil

• There was never a personal issue between the resistance and Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam. However, those promoting him are doing so with the aim of provoking the resistance and undermining it. The resistance has no problem with Salam’s history or qualifications. Many of the resistance supporters admire and respect him, and wish to see him as prime minister, but not at the expense of turning his nomination into a fabricated victory over the resistance. A similar dynamic applied to the case of Army Commander General Joseph Aoun before he became a candidate for the presidency. Back then, the resistance, represented politically by the tandem of the Development and Liberation Bloc and the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc, with Speaker Nabih Berri leading their political maneuvers, was open to the idea of electing Aoun as a consensus president, as outlined in Berri’s initiative. This initiative revolved around a tripartite framework: a ceasefire, the implementation of Resolution 1701, and the election of a consensus president.

• When Saudi Arabia spearheaded efforts to rally support for Joseph Aoun, the tandem maintained close contact with the Saudis, understanding that the core issue wasn’t with Saudi Arabia itself. The Kingdom consistently emphasised its respect for Lebanon’s delicate sectarian balance, particularly regarding the Shia community, which
uniquely embodies three key elements. It is the community that serves as the reservoir of resistance against the Israeli occupation, rooted in both its people and geography. Politically, the community’s diversity converges almost entirely within the alliance of Amal Movement and Hezbollah, forming a unified front that leaves little room for divergence, especially when it comes to matters of resistance. Moreover, it is the community targeted by attempts to incite strife, with Saudi Arabia positioned as the patron of Arab Sunnis. This context has made the resistance acutely aware that all schemes against it are purely American in origin.

• During the brutal war targeting Lebanon, including the South, the Bekaa, and the southern suburbs of Beirut, the Americans exerted immense effort to maneuver and negotiate terms favourable to Israel. Their aim was to manufacture a false victory narrative for the occupying entity, which it failed to achieve on the battlefield. Despite the might of its Iron Dome, Israeli infrastructure, cities, and forces were unable to withstand the resistance’s strikes. Meanwhile, its ground forces failed to secure any meaningful breakthroughs that could lay the groundwork for a victory image.

Veteran negotiator Nabih Berri, with four decades of experience dealing with American interlocutors, from Philip Habib to Condoleezza Rice and Amos Hochstein, led the talks with caution and skill. His efforts culminated in a ceasefire agreement reflecting the resilience of the resistance on the southern front, denying the occupying entity the victory narrative it sought. It was evident during the negotiations that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken aimed to leverage the Lebanese presidential elections as a bargaining chip under the guise of ceasefire conditions. However, Berri’s steadfast refusal, reinforced by the resistance’s firepower, forced the occupying entity to accept the ceasefire without preconditions.

• In the 44 days between the ceasefire and the scheduled presidential election session, a noticeable coldness marked the attitudes of American-designated allies toward any compromise efforts. It became clear that no president would emerge from these sessions. Their preferences excluded the army commander until the Americans intervened, aligning their regional allies behind General Aoun. Opposition factions quickly shifted their stances within hours.

The resistance refrained from taking a negative position, merely calling for consensus. However, this call was ignored as part of an attempt to manufacture a victory narrative against the resistance. The attempt failed, further tarnishing General Aoun’s image while yielding no progress. Consequently, reaching a consensus with American approval became a prerequisite for resolving the presidential impasse. This consensus included commitments to credibly implement Resolution 1701, initiate reconstruction efforts, and agree on a government led by Najib Mikati.

The tandem was open to discussing alternative candidates for prime minister if Saudi Arabia opposed Mikati. However, it appears the Americans deceived both Saudi Arabia and the president-elect, as well as manipulated the tandem, through backchannel agreements involving the president and Saudi leadership.

• The issue isn’t a choice between Mikati and Salam; it’s about honouring the agreement. The breach isn’t against Mikati but against the agreement itself. Those who promoted Salam’s candidacy undermined both Saudi Arabia and the president, whether they were complicit or unaware. This breach complicates matters significantly, aiming to create a fabricated victory narrative.

The real challenge now lies with the prime minister-designate and the president, whose signatures are essential for forming a government. The president’s signature must ensure fair representation of all sects. Should they proceed with a government excluding the tandem, giving the Shia sect marginal representation while favouring other sects, they would cross a national, not just constitutional, red line.

Alternatively, if they resume negotiations to revive the pre-election agreement, the fabricated victory narrative would collapse. In such a scenario, the architect of this maneuver would appear as a naïve strategist, ensnaring allies in a debacle that grants the tandem another opportunity to affirm its indispensability. Just as no president can be elected without the tandem, no government can be formed without it. Attempts to bypass the tandem through the illusion that appointing a prime minister-designate doesn’t require a two-thirds majority have proven to be nothing more than a deceptive mirage.