Gaza Agreement Cements Resistance’s Victory and Occupation’s Defeat as Acknowledged by U.S. and Israeli Leaders /  Blinken Admits Hezbollah’s Arms Are Not Up for Discussion and the Goal Is Limited to Pushing It Back from the Border

 January 15, 2025

The political editor wrote

As delegations stationed in Doha and those arriving there prepare for the announcement of the Gaza war’s end, the Israeli Broadcasting Authority has published the agreement’s text. The document outlines clear provisions for aid, debris removal, temporary housing, and the unconditional return of displaced persons to northern Gaza in the first phase. The second and third phases involve a complete withdrawal, ending the war, lifting the blockade, and releasing the majority of living detainees from Gaza.

The text specifies the following:

Phase Two (42 days): 15- The announcement of sustainable calm (a permanent cessation of military operations and all hostilities), to take effect before the exchange of detainees and prisoners. The return of all remaining living Israeli men (both civilians and soldiers) in exchange for an agreed number of prisoners in Israeli jails. A complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.

Phase Three (42 days): 16- The exchange of remains from both sides after retrieval and identification. 17- Implementation of a reconstruction plan for Gaza, spanning 3-5 years, covering homes, civilian buildings, infrastructure, and compensating all affected parties under the supervision of countries and organisations such as Egypt, Qatar, and the United Nations.
18- Opening border crossings and allowing the free movement of people and goods.

On the political front, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken admitted that the war was halted because the resistance’s strength exceeded the ability to defeat it. Speaking at the Atlantic Forum, he described Gaza as a model of modern warfare, revealing U.S. intelligence reports that Hamas recruited fighters during the war to compensate for its human losses.

Israeli political analyst Alon Mizrahi wrote, “ What is getting clearer at this unique moment, is that Hamas, a small Palestinian movement, defeated not only Israel, but the entire West. All of it. It won on the battlefield, and it won in public opinion. It managed to make spectacular use of its reading of Israeli mentality, and it employed every asset it had with extreme efficiency. It won hearts for the Palestinian cause the world over. It has not been destroyed or dismantled. It kept virtually every captive it took. It yielded to no pressure. It remains functional and lethal…History will judge [this] as one of the most genius and unbelievable achievements in all military history. Beyond unfathomable. By waging this war, Israel has turned Hamas into a legend of resistance that will live in cultural memory for ages”.

In the same testimony at the Atlantic Forum, Blinken also conceded that disarming Hezbollah is not on the agenda, contrary to claims by some Lebanese figures. He stated, “Israel faces an unsustainable situation on its northern border.” He noted that Hezbollah forces have retreated north of the Litani River, and Iran’s capacity to supply the group with arms has diminished due to the collapse of the Syrian regime. However, Blinken did not reference claims of agreements to disarm Hezbollah or hopes of achieving this, dismissing such notions as baseless rhetoric.

In Lebanon, Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam spoke after meeting President Joseph Aoun, with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri also in attendance. Following Berri’s departure, Aoun and Salam held a working session during which Salam emphasised that he is not an exclusionary figure, extending his hands to all parties in the spirit of partnership. Salam’s remarks were positively received by the Amal-Hezbollah duo, easing the tensions sparked by the manner of his designation, which had been perceived as provocative and a challenge to prior understandings preceding Aoun’s election.

However, the duo’s participation in government formation remains uncertain, with a significant likelihood of boycotting today and tomorrow’s non-binding parliamentary consultations led by Salam. The outcome hinges on serious dialogue that could either pave the way for collaboration, including their participation, or lead to an amicable separation, leaving the duo outside the government. In such a scenario, they would still fulfill their responsibilities during the transitional phase, including implementing Resolution 1701 and advancing reconstruction, until the next parliamentary elections and subsequent government formation over a year from now.