February 06, 2025
By Nasser Kandil
• U.S. President Donald Trump, as a businessman and dealmaker, operates on a simple principle: give each party something they desire while securing something even more valuable in return. In this spirit, Trump surprised his guest, Benjamin Netanyahu, with a proposal to displace Gaza’s population, resettle them in Jordan and Egypt, and place Gaza under long-term U.S. stewardship – an unexpected gift aimed at rescuing Netanyahu from the pressure to accept a Palestinian state as the price for Saudi normalisation. The plan also sought to shield Netanyahu from the threat of internal strife that could push the entity into civil war and topple his government.
Yet this hypothetical plan does not need to be realistic for Netanyahu to welcome it. Its mere existence allows him to claim that a ceasefire in Gaza can be implemented without Israel appearing defeated – since the day after in Gaza would now be an American responsibility.
• In return, Netanyahu has lost the ability to challenge Trump on Iran or insist on the necessity of war. The Iran file has become entirely an American affair, especially as Trump, ahead of his meeting with Netanyahu, preemptively imposed new sanctions and issued direct threats against Tehran. However, Trump also made it clear that a negotiated solution remains possible, and even preferable, so long as Iran provides sufficient assurances to the West that it has no intention of developing nuclear weapons.
• On the Iranian front, Trump employs the same strategy. He signals to Iran’s leadership that he is open to a nuclear deal, potentially under terms acceptable to Tehran. Yet, on the other hand, he carries demands tied to the broader regional conflicts, particularly in Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, and Palestine. He may offer recognition of Iranian influence in some areas and a willingness to accommodate Tehran’s vision in certain cases, but in exchange, he could demand Iran disengage from others, or exert pressure on its allies in these arenas to accept specific settlements in return for formal acknowledgment of Iranian sway where it is granted.
• Unlike previous U.S. administrations, Trump does not rely on the traditional carrot-and-stick approach with Iran. That tactic has already been tried. Instead, he engages in direct bartering – exchanging files for other files. Yet the goal may extend beyond simple trade-offs. Trump’s strategy could be aimed at sowing internal Iranian divisions over how to assess his offer – forcing Tehran to weigh what is important against what is most important.
