February 12, 2025
By Nasser Kandil
• U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks about ending the ceasefire and unleashing hell on Gaza unless all Israeli prisoners are released by noon on Saturday have raised questions about the fate of the ceasefire agreement.
• Hamas, insisting on Israel’s commitments under the deal – particularly regarding humanitarian aid – has linked any resumption of prisoner exchanges to addressing Israel’s violations of the agreement.
• Trump’s statement shifted the issue from salvaging and realigning the agreement to rekindling talk of a military solution. No one expects the resistance to yield to Trump’s conditions and release all prisoners without concessions. To Hamas, his demand amounts to nothing short of surrender.
• Following a meeting of its security cabinet, Israel seized on Trump’s stance to escalate its threats but left the door open for resuming the agreement, agreeing to release only those prisoners previously scheduled for release on Saturday, not all of them. This appeared to give mediators an opportunity to negotiate a formula to salvage the deal, particularly as Israel simultaneously announced continued humanitarian aid deliveries into Gaza.
• Trump’s statement revealed two key realities. First, the notion that he imposed the agreement on Israel has collapsed. By effectively granting Israel a way out of the deal, he allowed it to declare its failure and return to war. Yet, instead of seizing this opportunity, Israel has chosen to gamble on preserving the agreement, but only under terms that serve its interests.
• Second, Trump’s position exposed Israel’s reluctance to return to war—not out of goodwill, but out of incapacity. Seeing no path to victory, Israel was effectively handed the decision to escalate, only to realise that doing so would cost it all its captives while failing yet again in occupation, displacement, and eradicating the resistance. This is precisely why it entered the agreement in the first place, not due to Trump’s so-called pressure – pressure that now pushes in the opposite direction.
• A resolution to the dispute is likely, and the agreement’s implementation will resume. Trump’s proposals, often mistaken for displays of overwhelming power, are in reality unworkable because they lack the means of enforcement. They rely on Israeli force, yet Israel’s leaders have come to grasp the limits of their own capabilities. What Israel truly needs is not an America inciting it toward war—an option it cannot afford—but rather the illusion of a war it could enter, only to step back under American pressure, preserving its image of strength.
