February 24, 2025
Nasser Kandil
• Those who had hoped to see Hezbollah buried alongside its Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Sayyed Hashem Safieddine – believing that the funeral would reveal a mass abandonment of the resistance – were dealt a cold shock and left disappointed. Instead, Hezbollah emerged, shielded by a million-strong base and bolstered by unwavering support from other sectarian communities, even if they were minorities. This support extended beyond Lebanon, encompassing both elite and grassroots backing from Arab and international circles, including governments and peoples alike. Moreover, Hezbollah demonstrated an exceptionally efficient organisational, security, media, and diplomatic apparatus, capable of managing such a complex event with remarkable success, leaving even its most rational adversaries, especially abroad, in stunned disbelief.
• In the political arena, Hezbollah dismantled the pretexts of its opponents, frustrating those who had hoped not only to witness the party’s decline but also to hear reckless rhetoric, both regionally provocative and internally inflammatory, that would set unattainable expectations beyond the party’s capacity to fulfill or bear responsibility for their consequences. Instead, Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem reaffirmed Hezbollah’s position as the strongest political force in Lebanon, firmly believing in Lebanon’s permanent status as an inclusive homeland for all its citizens, upholding the Taif Agreement, and recognising the state as the unifying framework for all Lebanese. He stated that the responsibility for ending the occupation and repelling aggression lies with the state, while Hezbollah remains committed to the internal agreement designating the defense strategy as a subject of national dialogue – one that specifically addresses the role of the resistance’s weapons in defending Lebanon.
• Hezbollah’s adversaries will find no grounds to blame the party for the continuation of Israeli aggression or for any supposed violation of Lebanon’s commitments under the ceasefire agreement. This is especially true given that both the Lebanese Army and the Lebanese government have affirmed that Lebanon has fulfilled its obligations regarding Hezbollah’s withdrawal from south of the Litani River. Consequently, based on statements from Lebanon’s top three leaders and UNIFIL reports, Israel’s continued occupation of the five hills and the Lebanese section of Ghajar – territories within the Blue Line – remains a blatant violation of Resolution 1701. It is the state’s responsibility to end this occupation.
• Hezbollah has recovered, but Lebanon is ailing. The issue is not Hezbollah’s stance but rather Lebanon’s position within the framework of U.S.-Israeli relations. Even Hezbollah’s fiercest opponents understand, though they refuse to acknowledge that Washington grants Tel Aviv free rein in Lebanon, just as it does in Syria. This remains the case despite all the concessions made by Syria’s new leadership to accommodate Israeli security interests, whether by dismantling the army that Israel has wanted to destroy, and did so in full-view of the new leadership,
expelling Iran and Hezbollah from Syria, and severing Hezbollah’s supply lines. These had been Israeli objectives for years, yet they were only realised under Syria’s new leadership. Still, this did not shield Syria from Israeli aggression, which persists unabated from entrenching the occupation of the Golan to daily incursions into Syrian territory, culminating in open declarations of intent to sow sectarian discord in southern Syria. The fundamental question remains: What if Hezbollah’s current diplomatic efforts, for which it has set no immediate deadline, ultimately bear no fruit?
• Lebanon is ailing because neither Hezbollah’s opponents nor, perhaps, anyone within the state is preparing for the possibility that diplomacy is doomed to fail. The priority for many in Lebanon’s political class is not the liberation of occupied land or the cessation of aggression but rather the weakening of Hezbollah and securing favour with Washington – an equation that dictates internal political standing. After all, those blessed with American support find security in their political survival, provided they refrain from acknowledging that U.S. commitments to Israel always take precedence over any consideration for Lebanon’s legitimate demands.
• Lebanon will begin to heal when a national consensus emerges that the time has come for the Lebanese Army to acquire an air defense system, not to build an army capable of confronting Israel or equipping it to deter aggression and reclaim occupied land, as such goals are often dismissed as unrealistic and manipulable, but simply to establish an air defense network. Achieving this requires only a Cabinet decision, one that would set diplomacy into motion and force Israel to weigh the strategic costs of its continued occupation against Lebanon’s acquisition of a system that would curb Israeli aerial dominance, both operationally and in intelligence gathering, over Lebanese airspace.
