February 26, 2025
By Nasser Kandil
• While U.S. President Donald Trump handles regional issues with characteristic nonchalance, making incendiary statements only to send envoys afterward to contain the fallout and maintain stability, his primary strategic focus for the coming months is redefining U.S.-Russia relations on a viable new foundation. A prime example of this approach is unfolding now in Gaza, where the prisoner exchange at the end of the first phase of the ceasefire agreement is setting the stage for negotiations over the next phase.
• Trump’s strategy toward Moscow rests on three key pillars. First, he seeks to reassure Russia that its interests will be considered in any settlement to the Ukraine war, which Washington has now effectively abandoned. Second, he aims to divide spheres of influence in Europe, restoring a Cold War-era balance in which Western Europe remains an American stronghold while Eastern Europe is open to Russian influence, particularly in the realm of oil and gas. Third, he is working with Moscow to curb military spending, redirecting resources toward modernizing nuclear arsenals. Trump is betting that China will eventually follow suit, as Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested.
Through this trilateral approach, Trump secures a dignified exit from wars that the U.S. ignited but ultimately lost, allowing America to withdraw without admitting defeat. He also bolsters the U.S. economy by expanding oil and gas exports and reduces government spending to rein in a national debt teetering on the brink of collapse, where military expenditures constitute the heaviest burden.
• European and Turkish leaders had placed their hopes on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a counterweight to Trump. However, Zelensky shocked his allies yesterday by agreeing to a deal that grants the U.S. a share in Ukraine’s mineral wealth – an act of capitulation to Trump that paves the way for his eventual surrender to Putin.
• Once Trump completes this critical phase, shifting from confrontation to cooperation with Russia, he will turn his attention to China, seeking a similar arrangement at Taiwan’s expense. From there, he will pursue his vision of a “Greater America,” expanding U.S. influence over Canada, Mexico, Panama, and Greenland.
In the Middle East, Trump’s approach hinges on political alignment with Israel without financial or military commitments. If Israel asserts dominance, he will applaud; if it begins to falter, he will cushion the blow. And if the region’s shifting dynamics, driven by Arab governments, popular resistance, and geopolitical realities, force Israel into a comprehensive political settlement, Trump will simply embrace the new status quo.
