Trump to Hamas After U.S. Negotiations: Release All Prisoners Immediately or Face Hell /  Fewer Than 10% of Northern Displaced Have Returned Despite Government Efforts to Beautify the Situation

 March 06, 2025

The political editor wrote

The round of negotiations in Doha between a U.S. envoy and Hamas leaders failed to achieve a breakthrough that met President Donald Trump’s expectations. Meanwhile, the implementation of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, brokered by Washington and its envoy, Steve Whitcoff, remains stalled. It is unclear whether Whitcoff’s return to the region has been affected by these developments, particularly after Trump issued an ultimatum to Hamas: either immediately release all prisoners, both living and dead, or face hell. This echoes a similar threat he made two weeks ago when Hamas suspended the prisoner exchange in response to Israeli violations of the agreement. At the time, Trump backtracked, stating that the matter was up to the Israelis. That reversal left Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hesitant about withdrawing from the agreement, despite pressure from his far-right allies to resume the war. Ultimately, he chose to uphold the deal – a decision Israeli political commentators attributed to his recognition of the military option’s diminished effectiveness especially under worse conditions. The Israeli army had already failed to eliminate the resistance in better circumstances, and renewed war would only heighten the risk to Israeli prisoners. American analysts suggest that this time, too, Trump is leaving the decision to the Israelis.
Within the occupying entity, reactions followed the government’s announcement that 19,000 northern displaced persons had returned, a figure it claimed represented 30% of the total 67,000 displaced. However, media reports indicate this number reflects only a fraction of the actual displaced population. According to the National Emergency Authority, 125,000 people had fled within days of the southern Lebanese front opening to support Gaza. A Wall Street Journal report from spring 2024 cited 225,000 displaced persons. Israeli television analysts argue that, no matter the government’s incentives or statistical manipulations, Israel cannot match the scale of displaced persons returning to southern Lebanon. Fewer than 10% of Israeli northern evacuees have returned, which is a disappointing outcome for their government given its extensive financial efforts including the propaganda campaign aimed at persuading the displaced to return. On the other side the return rate in Lebanese border villages has reached 50%, even amid total devastation, an absent state, and no reconstruction aid.
Politically, government and presidential circles are increasingly questioning whether the occupation’s military presence and assaults will soon come to an end, and whether the United States’ reluctance to engage with Lebanese demands is temporary or permanent. Many now suggest a shift in Washington’s position, away from backing a Lebanese state led by U.S.-aligned figures who would secure Hezbollah’s withdrawal from the south and, in return, oversee an Israeli pullback from occupied Lebanese territories. That was the premise of discussions before the ceasefire and presidential elections. Now, however, the U.S. has fully aligned itself with Israel’s stance, operating under the belief that even rhetorical divergence from Tel Aviv’s position is unacceptable. In this view, withdrawal and an end to military hostilities would only weaken Israel internally, given its failure to achieve a victory convincing enough for settlers in both the north and south to believe they have won.