March 08, 2025
By Nasser Kandil
• There are many differences between Somalia and Syria, yet striking similarities as well. Somalia was once a nation of prosperity and progress, earning it the nickname “the Switzerland of Africa” in the 1960s. While there are notable distinctions between former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and former Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre, both nations experienced long tenures under these leaders, marked by regional conflicts, shifting international alliances, and internal wars that ultimately led to their downfall. In both cases, their removal paved the way for civil strife and the rise of extremist groups, resulting in what has come to be known globally as “Somalisation” – a state where a failed government presides over a fragmented nation, where armed factions roam unchecked, and where the population teeters on the edge of famine and systemic collapse, all while enduring continuous sieges and existential threats, short of outright territorial partition into officially recognised entities.
• The past two days in Syria have been particularly alarming. The bloodshed along the Syrian coast, largely suppressed in the Arab and international media, coupled with the dangerous escalation of sectarian tensions, ethnic cleansing, and massacres, suggest that any remaining opportunity to establish a viable governing structure – one that could preserve Syria’s unity and ensure the meaningful participation of its diverse communities, has been lost. If it was once a difficult prospect, it is now verging on impossibility.
• In the aftermath of the coastal violence, the Kurds in northeastern Syria will cling more firmly to their autonomy, their weapons, and their resources. The people of Suwayda will likely maintain a cautious stance, refraining from committing to any joint political project, especially one involving Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, if the cost is disarmament. Meanwhile, foreign interventions under the pretext of “protecting minorities” will gain further legitimacy, as will calls for federalism and partition.
• A centralised government, sustained by an exclusive sectarian and partisan core, no matter how confident it may be in its numerical dominance, will soon realise it has plunged Syria into an enduring civil war. Even if it temporarily regains control over the coastal region, such control will be fleeting. The hopes that many Syrians had for relief from sanctions, economic recovery, security stability, and an end to Israeli attacks have now vanished, replaced instead by anxieties and nightmares.
