March 008, 2025
Nasser Kandil
• Yemen has emerged as a key actor in the war on Gaza, securing a role it did not hold immediately after the al-Aqsa Flood operation. The world’s attention is now fixed on Yemen’s moves, a stark contrast to the past when many analysts and observers dismissed its stance as inconsequential in the region’s balance of power. When Yemen announced the opening of a support front for Gaza, few anticipated that it would not only become a major front but the primary front in sustaining Gaza. Through its tightly enforced naval blockade in the Red Sea, choking off all trade bound for the occupying entity, Yemen has inflicted real economic and psychological damage. Despite the severity of the disruption, the occupying entity has found itself powerless to mount an effective response. More significantly, Yemen has exposed the fragility of the entity’s deterrence posture. But even beyond that, Yemen has successfully challenged American deterrence in the Red Sea, an arena central to the United States’ national security strategy in the region.
• With Lebanon’s front suffering heavy losses and a ceasefire agreement establishing a balance, whereby the resistance prevents the occupation from advancing by land, while the occupation maintains superiority in firepower, intelligence, and technology, Yemen has shouldered the burden of support alone. Iraq, too, has exited the support front under conditions similar to Lebanon’s. Yet, despite concerted efforts by the Americans, the Israelis, and their allies to place Yemen under similar constraints, they have failed. This is no coincidence but rather the result of Yemen’s exceptional synergy between its leadership, armed forces, and people, mirroring the model set by the resistance in Gaza. In contrast, Lebanon and Iraq have struggled due to internal factions that undermine the resistance, forcing them to adopt positions that preserve national unity and civil peace while thwarting American and Israeli schemes.
Yemen now carries two burdens. First, it stands alone as the vanguard of the resistance axis. Second, its leader, Sayyed Abdul-Malik Al-Houthi, has effectively assumed the role of filling the vacuum left by Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah after his martyrdom as the leader of the resistance axis. Despite direct U.S. threats, accompanied by sanctions and terrorist designations, Yemen remains resolute, fully aware of the true balance of power beyond Trumpian rhetoric. The equation for safeguarding Gaza from war is clear: Gaza holds the cards of prisoners and ground warfare, while Yemen wields the weapons of naval blockade and the missile and drone threat to Tel Aviv. This deterrent balance forces the U.S. and the occupying entity to reconsider any decision to escalate the war.
• Yemen is now stepping forward, setting a four-day deadline for humanitarian aid to enter Gaza. It has warned that if aid deliveries do not begin before the deadline expires, the naval blockade on the occupying entity will resume. As a result, the Gaza war is now shaped by two threats: one from the occupier, promising fire and devastation unless prisoners are released without guarantees of an end to the war or a withdrawal of occupation forces; and another from Yemen, ensuring that the naval blockade will return unless aid reaches Gaza. The occupying entity must weigh the risks, despite unwavering American support, Washington has left it to bear the burden of executing its threats. It fears that its prisoners may be executed, dreads the perils of a renewed ground war, and now faces the growing impact of Yemen’s role.
• Yemen’s latest move, tying the resumption of its blockade to aid entry, is calculated. The occupier may prefer maintaining the truce but could still block aid. If aid resumes, the resistance has no objection to waiting for the right moment to transition to the next phase. Yemen, however, knows that enforcing the blockade would trigger a renewed confrontation in the Red Sea with the U.S. and the occupying entity, one that could escalate to strikes deep inside the entity itself, or even against American bases in the Gulf, not just against U.S. warships and carriers.
• Yemen has stepped onto the global stage and is playing as one of the major powers.
