March 11, 2025
By Nasser Kandil
• The options regarding the future of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza are fluctuating, between the possibility of successful negotiations advancing to the second phase or a return to tension and perhaps war. Direct negotiations between Hamas and the Americans point to notable progress, but the obstacles remain the Israeli approval for a full withdrawal from Gaza, especially the Salah al-Din axis, known as Philadelphia, and the declaration of the end of the war. These issues continue to impede serious discussions about returning to second-phase negotiations and conducting partial prisoner exchanges during the negotiation period, or proceeding with a comprehensive all-for-all deal.
• Alongside the U.S. approval of both formulas, the families of the prisoners within the occupying entity are applying pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to either continue implementing the agreement or proceed with a comprehensive deal according to the new proposal. However, Netanyahu stands hesitant, fearing the collapse of his government, as his coalition partner, Betzalel Smotrich, opposes any agreement that includes a full withdrawal from Gaza and the declaration of the war’s end.
• At this point, Yemen enters the equation, presenting a serious challenge to both the occupying entity and its American backer. The deadline for Yemen’s aid to Gaza expires tomorrow, and since Yemen does not make idle threats, once the deadline passes, Yemen will resume targeting ships heading toward the occupying entity in the Red Sea. The U.S., having designated the Houthi movement as a terrorist group, will be forced to support the occupying entity by returning to targeting Yemen. Yemen’s response will be to resume targeting ships, U.S. carriers, and, by extension, the depths of the occupying entity with missiles and drones.
• The pressure set by Yemen’s ultimatum forces rapid decision-making in Washington and Tel Aviv, requiring an evaluation of options and decisive action. If the return to war looms, then the fate of negotiations must be determined before the deadline, either by announcing an agreement, albeit partial, that ensures aid enters, avoiding the commencement of Yemen’s maneuvers, which would strengthen Hamas’s negotiating position, or by declaring a full agreement, meaning Yemen’s pressure has played a role in strengthening the resistance. Alternatively, the negotiations could be abandoned on the grounds of failure, considering war as inevitable. This would be a huge gamble, risking the lives of many on one hand, and the military failure in Gaza and the Red Sea once again on the other. Yet, idiocy is not off the table, and anything is possible.
