March 12, 2025
By Nasser Kandil
• The ruling regime in Damascus only needed to experience the sharp collapse of its Arab and global standing – once the usual solidarity statements, typically offered to a weak ally, were no longer available to compensate for its fragility – before it swiftly, within hours, shifted the structure of its project dramatically .
• The massacres on the coast dealt a fatal blow to the new regime. They effectively undermined the tireless efforts of the months leading up to and following the entry of Damascus, which aimed to craft the image of a modern, civil president under a new name – Ahmed al-Shara. This figure bore no resemblance to Abu Mohammed al-Julani, as he donned European suits, ties, and branded watches, speaking of shared governance, multi-confessional coexistence, and a Syria for all its people. In a single blow, the massacres on the coast revived the image of Abu Mohammed al-Julani, exposing Ahmed al-Shara as nothing more than an AI-generated image or a Photoshopped version of the real Abu Mohammed al-Julani, who came from ISIS, al-Qaeda, and the Nusra Front to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
• The agreements made by al-Shara with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and later with figures and leaders from the Suwayda region were, in essence, a defeat for al-Shara’s project. He had negotiated for months based on terms that he had earlier rejected, with the main point of contention now becoming the subject of agreement. The Damascus regime accepted a form of federalism under the euphemistic term “decentralisation”. This meant that the military and security forces in eastern Euphrates and southern Syria fly the Syrian flag, coordinate with the Ministry of Defense in the Syrian government, and be composed primarily of local inhabitants, serving only in their region. Thus, they would become regional agents for the central government rather than an integral part of it.
• In the earlier negotiations between the SDF and al-Shara, and between the elders of Suwayda and al-Shara, he had presented the text he had asked the armed factions to sign, declaring their willingness to dissolve themselves and integrate into military and security units before any discussions could take place. When they refused to sign, the negotiations halted. This time, however, he initiated the discussion by telling both sides that he agreed to bypass the dissolution of armed factions and their integration, and instead accepted self-security in both regions, under the banner of the Ministry of Defense. They accepted.
• In effect, the leaders of the SDF and some leaders from Suwayda profited from the spilled blood of those who fell on the coast. They could have redirected the negotiations toward Syria’s future, rather than focusing on their own factional gains.
• In practice, federalism means areas of international and regional influence, with the Americans in the east of the Euphrates, the Israelis in the south, and potentially a similar Russian influence in the coast. This arrangement began after the convergence of Russian and American interests in convening the UN Security Council to discuss the situation in Syria, but we have yet to hear anything about this meeting’s outcomes.
