March 14, 2025
By Nasser Kandil
• Russian President Vladimir Putin chose a strategic formula to express his reservations about what has been referred to as the ‘American proposal for a one-month ceasefire in Ukraine’. He stated that Russia seeks a lasting peace, not a temporary truce that merely sets the stage for another round of war. From Moscow’s perspective, the proposed ceasefire is a trap designed to create a rift between President Donald Trump and President Putin, just as a breakthrough in their relationship seemed within reach. Moscow accuses Pentagon circles of coordinating with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to present the proposal and entangle Trump into endorsing it, portraying Zelensky’s approval as a step worthy of recognition, while, in reality, the ceasefire serves as a direct lifeline for the Ukrainian leadership, which is losing the war.
• Rather than outright rejecting the proposal, Putin responded with a two-pronged approach. First, he appeared in his military command center dressed in combat fatigues, issuing direct orders to secure full control over the Kursk region and eliminate remaining Ukrainian strongholds within what Russia considers its own territory. Second, he announced that Moscow would agree to the ceasefire, on the condition that Kursk be exempt due to its “special status.” This effectively meant that while hostilities in eastern Ukraine would be frozen, Russian forces would continue their push in Kursk, where Moscow is determined to consolidate its control.
• On the surface, Putin’s maneuver may appear as a way to tilt the balance in Russia’s favour. In reality, however, it places the outcome squarely in the hands of battlefield dynamics. Putin can simply argue to Trump that for months, Russian forces have been advancing in eastern Ukraine, and freezing the front there benefits Ukraine by halting Russia’s progress. Meanwhile, a ceasefire in the east would allow Ukraine to redeploy troops to the Kursk front, just as Russia would. In the end, the stronger side would prevail in that battle, and both parties would believe they had the upper hand.
• Putin’s approach is rooted in his confidence that the war’s momentum strongly favours Russia. His strategy is to resolve the Kursk issue during the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, setting the stage for peace negotiations based on battlefield realities. By doing so, he sidesteps the trap meant to drive a wedge between him and Trump at a critical moment in their efforts to establish mutual trust.
