March 17, 2025
By Nasser Kandil
• Despite the many challenges facing Lebanon and Syria, both of which are undergoing transitional phases in an attempt to forge new governing structures amid competing wagers, illusions, and aspirations, entangled in regional and international conflicts and settlements, the organisation of priorities demands that both governments recognise Israeli aggression as their foremost concern.
• Israel operates in both countries under the assumption that their emerging governments remain within a regional and international orbit where it holds significant influence, particularly given Washington’s role as the decisive arbiter. Both Lebanese and Syrian authorities seek Washington’s support, whether in financial matters or in managing the Israeli aggression, making their reluctance to antagonise the U.S. a strategic advantage for Israel.
• Israel leverages its privileged relationship with Washington to turn its aggression into a tool of pressure, coercing both governments into negotiations under conditions that undermine their national sovereignty. This also serves to restore some of Israel’s lost image of strength in the eyes of its own public following the setbacks of its recent war, which have eroded confidence in its power and deterrence capabilities.
• Southern Lebanon and southern Syria have effectively become arenas for Israeli military posturing. Israel recognises that expanding the scope of its operations is enough to destabilise both governments, obstructing their efforts to consolidate their authority and impeding solutions to their broader crises. Without security, neither economic recovery nor political cohesion is possible, an increasingly unattainable prospect as the aggression escalates and its political ramifications deepen within both countries.
• Addressing Israeli aggression, and the American protection that enables it, must be the starting point in prioritising national concerns. Confronting this reality not only strengthens internal unity in both Lebanon and Syria but also compels them to abandon illusions of seeking power through external alliances or yielding to pressure. It further serves as a catalyst for reassessing bilateral relations through this lens and urges regional sponsors of both governments to acknowledge this priority in shaping their policies.
