Putin-Erdogan understanding paves the way for a military action

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Anyone who reads the items of the announced understanding after the summit that brought together the Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Turkish President Recep Erdogan can ask two questions: First, is it possible to imagine a better scenario for getting rid of Al Nusra front and collecting the weapons of the armed groups within a formula that resembles the settlements which were applied in many areas without shedding one drop of blood? In other words, in a bloody battle that neither Syria nor Russia nor the allies can bear its consequences and that does not grant the West especially Washington the opportunity of escalation against Syria and the allies? Second, is it possible to achieve that ideal scenario?  In other words, will Turkey be able to achieve the content of the understandings after it was granted by Russia one moth to end Al Nusra front and three months to collect the heavy and medium-weapons from the province of Idlib after it announced its abidance by that understanding? Will that be achieved by depending only on the security and political pressure or on the military force too? Will the Turkish military force be involved directly in the battle? Or this will be entrusted to its affiliated groups? Will these groups be able to achieve a mission in which they failed in its achievement repeatedly due to the overlapping between them and Al Nusra? Will this be possible in the confrontation without the involvement of the Syrian army and its allies and without the support of the Syrian Air Defense?

After reading the course of the war on Syria, it can be said that the military knot of Idlib is that it includes ten thousands of militants, including thousands from Turkestan and Uyghurs whom the political solution is not possible with. Therefore, the talk about a reconciliation solution that ends Al Nusra front is fantasy, while the collection of the armed groups’ medium and heavy- weapons is the only possible thing that can be done by Turkey. The war which is completed by achieving the Turkish commitment requires an unimagined human confrontation and firepower depending on armed groups affiliated to Turkey, that their history revealed their division upon the first clash with Al Nusra into those who would join Al Nusra and those who escape from the battle. It is impossible to imagine the availability of sufficient firepower for this battle without the Russian Air Force’s partnership. When the armed groups run by Turkey become incapable and the human needed cost is not borne internally by the Turkish army then the Syrian army and the allies will have an unavoidable field role. This is the only possible realistic scenario for achieving the Russian – Turkish understanding within deadlines without any Turkish deception or coup due to the Russian air control and the political surrounding relationship between Turkey and all its former partners in the war on Syria at their forefront Washington.

The question about the reason of this understanding will become legitimate if the course of events imposes the battle of Idlib in which the Syrian army and the allies will be involved. The answer is that Russia grants Turkey the opportunity to keep its role in the political solution in Syria but at a clear high cost. In return, Turkey gives this opportunity to its armed groups including Al Nusra front to put them before a similar clear high- cost equation. Therefore, the result will be a military political dynamic relationship between Turkey and the armed groups on one hand, and between Turkey and the armed groups with Al Nusra, Turkestan, Uighur, and others on the other hand, that will make the Syrian –Russian military choice along with the allies a bitter alternative, that its avoidance is high and its acceptance is the bitterest. Therefore, Russia has frustrated the western campaign against it, Iran, and Syria, it has programmed the achievement of  its objectives in a gradual clever way, and has proposed an attainable political solution if Turkey and those who are with it succeed in achieving the goals.

The Israeli aggression on the Syrian coast alone expresses the anxiety of Washington and Tel Aviv.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,