Samir Al-Kuntar is the title of war: so he was and so he will be

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The most important figures do not enter the history or get out of geography but only as important. Samir Al-Kuntar was a distinguished person in the world of important figures, he is Palestinian, Syrian, and Lebanese as his sect, which some have stolen its representation to give it the identity of tampering, double dealing, and the pretense of being clever in an attempt to search for a smaller identity than Mount Lebanon, while Al-Kuntar has granted it the characterizations of honesty,  pride, equitation , and magnanimity, these are the characteristics which his Arab ancestors who were protectors of the outlets from their first day have , and so he was. The Palestinians do not consider him but one of them and so the Syrians, and so the Lebanese, the son of the Mount through whom he boasts. The Mount has become Jabal Al- Arab with Sultan Pasha Al-Atrash who started his war with the French defending on the hero of the resistance in Amel Mount Sadiq Al-Hamza who resorted to it escaping from the French occupation, thus the sect of the Mount with Samir Al-Kuntar has become once again Jabal Al-Arab that spreads on the area of the Lebanese, Syrian and Palestinian triangle. As Samir Al-Kuntar was a hero of the process of Jamal Abdul Nasser from Sour shore to Galilee, he was a great as a mountain in the captivity, and as his liberation was a title of July war in 2006, it seems that his martyrdom will be after ten years a title of the war 2016.

It is not clear yet whether the process which targeted Samir Al-Kuntar was by surface-to-surface missiles near Tiberias or through air strikes by long- range missiles from the Occupied Palestine, or there was a violation of the Syrian airspaces that accompanied these raids, or whether these raids were used in disguise and infiltration in corridors that constitute gaps in the observed air defense systems, or they have passed with the knowledge of the radars without having a decision to operate the rockets system to confront them. Some want to discuss the Russian positioning and what accompanied it of strategic arsenal of air defense and its function in the presence of S400, and want to turn the discussion to question about the credibility of the Russian position and accusing it of complicity, and thus hitting the moral cohesion with the fighters of the resistance and the Syrian army at the peak of war which is now in so much need for this cohesion.

If we take the matters to the worst conditions; that these are Israeli raids that have been occurred by planes and which  the Russian radars have monitored but ignored, or that Russia has been notified militarily that Israeli planes fly in the Syrian airspaces, then we have to remember that Russia as a superpower has entered the Syrian space within accurate sensitive equations, and has seized the opportunity and the title of war which the Americans have announced it on terrorism, moreover it has engaged in a courageous move to impose a presence that all know that it has a giant and important role in confronting the danger of the Turkish and the Saudi tampering in Syria directly or indirectly which tries to improve the image of Al-Nusra front and the rest of Al-Qaeda variations which the Russians have taken them as a goal for their raids for three months. Let us ask ourselves for how long it was in our consideration that we had a Russian air cover or a Russian missile cover against Israel, to exaggerate the matter, it is enough for us to know what the Russians have done was great and wonderful, let us pardon them from the questions and the answers within the international equations that control their tense relationships with the West especially with America. Do we imagine that the Russian missiles may drop Israeli planes while the international position and the position of the West public opinion remain the same with the indulgence of their governments with this role? The commitment of the Russians to controls against the terrorist organizations and the attempts of the Turkish tampering on borders, as well as the Saudi air threat are enough. Therefore, let us be concerned with our equations in the conflict with Israel according to what was before, and what will be if the Russians were not positioning among us.

In a similar way there were those who lament by asking about the role of the Syrian missiles, and why they do not impede the planes and drop them or prevent them from achieving their goals, the question ignores originally what has affected the system of the Syrian radars of harm by the armed opposition which is accused falsely of being a national opposition, it targeted skillfully and efficiently the networks of the air defense which have no relation with the internal confrontations, it showed its skill in playing the role of the security belt for Israel on Golan front, this is in addition to what the missiles’ networks which are of full positioning and deploying are doing within restricted conditions of spaces, this is not the matter with the Syrian network which is newly formed in the war and which lacks of the full constipation of geography in accordance with the requirements of the technical goal of deploying the network which did not exceed a  percentage to perfection and thus it does not become immune to hack. Israel has spent tens of hundreds on building what it called the Iron Dome; it has done tens of maneuvers to verify its effectiveness, but it neither succeeded in preventing a drone of Hezbollah, nor in stopping half ratio of the heavy missiles which have been sent from Gaza to Tel Aviv and Jerusalem during the war two years ago,  moreover the Patriot missiles which are erected to protect the Saudi borders with Yemen did not succeed in ensuing the security of the bordered areas from the ballistic  missiles, this means that the only logical acceptable debate is just the talk about the response and non-response, because what else is nonsense  and a silly attenuation that lacks for the minimum degree of understanding and maturity.

In front of a goal as Samir Al-Kuntar this Israeli process deserves the adventure and the risk, and maybe it has taken into consideration the expected response, so it decided to absorb it and not going to war as has happened after the two processes of Al-Quneitra of the assassination of the martyr Jihad Mognieh and his friends and the response through the qualitative process in Shebaa Farms, and maybe vice versa. Thus Israel decided to respond on the response and let the matters accelerate toward the war, or maybe going to the war itself is no longer an Israeli red line, but the Israeli preparations after the process show that the closest expectation is the anticipation of response, and to respond on the response and maybe far beyond. The announcement has mentioned about a military flying in the sky of the Southern Lebanon providing with information of immediate targeting of any missiles launcher, it is known that no launcher will be seen by the planes, it is known as well that the intimidation will not deter the resistance of what it will decide, but the political significance here is clear; the announcement of the Israeli intention to accept the escalation, so what has happened?

There are four factors that surround the Israeli position which make it incapable of waging a war that ends with decisive victory or with a settlement against an escalated uprising, the first factor stems from a reading that lasted from signing the nuclear understanding with Iran about a general track of the region, it is enhanced everyday and confirms that the choice of settlements is the predominant , and those who confront it from Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, and Iraq will pay the cost and who remains out it will be isolated, while Israel does not have papers of presence in  settlements and unable to bear the presence outside them, so it needs a dramatic development that enters it in this track, Secondly, the regional alliance of Israel dissipates from the weakness of Saudi Arabia and its obligation to put its foot at the ladder of settlements in Yemen to the loss of the security belt by classifying Al-Nusra front on the terrorism lists, and the failure of the attempts of merging it with the Syrian political process, while Turkey is defeated after the new Russian positioning in the region, now it is outside the war in Syria and it is obliged to withdraw from Iraq, thus Israel considers Turkey as a ripe fruit that it is time to be picked for a choice that is supposed that it has consequences on the region’s equations, Today Turkey is signing an agreement of gas with Israel as a substitute of the Russian gas, it has signed a reverse agreement before  2006 to supply Israel with oil in the same track of the gas track, both of them can be achieved by the victory on a war that prevents the Lebanese resistance from affecting the marine tracks. Thirdly, is the development of the American Saudi position that is integrated with the Israeli one by adopting a hostile approach against Hezbollah that paves the way for its weakening and resizing it if not crushing it, as a choice to improve the settlements’ conditions and their assumptions.  Once the Americans and the Saudis have started implementing their commitments, Israel has to do what stimulates this hostile front and to offer what is needed to activate its performance on one hand and to pay the bills which it dictated on the other hand. Fourthly,  is what Israel knew about what has been settled in the understanding between Moscow and Washington about linking the future of Syria and the political solution with the remaining of the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, this was translated by the UN resolution about the solution in Syria. So will Israel wait the maturity of the settlements while the Syrian President is surrounded by an alliance that extends from Russia to Iran along with a strong capable ally that targets the existence of Israel; which is Hezbollah, or does it have to accelerate a calendar that does what is needed to make the path of settlements without expecting a war even after, even if the cost is a current expensive war that is culminated by a resolution that is similar to 1701 resolution at the regional level?.

It is certain that the Israeli hypothesis of going to war is considered by Hezbollah, but it is certain as well that this will not make it draws its attention of the response, because the resistance will respond for thousand reasons, and that the response will put into consideration the choice of war, the war is full of surprises.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,