Between the lines of Putin and Erdogan

Written by Nasser Kandil,

It is a naivety to expect a statement that quenches the thirst of curiosity to know what was going on between the Russian President Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan about Syria and nature of the understanding which they reached to, as it is a naivety to imagine the occurrence of the meeting and the economic agreements which constitute a salvation to the Turkish declining economy  in an aggravated Turkish Western moment, while Moscow and Ankara are positioning in opposite banks in the Syrian war, or as assumed by some analyses that they make a negotiation with fire in Aleppo that is translated by the table which brought them together in Petersburg. The meeting and what preceded it of Turkish decision to meet the conditions of Russia for conciliation after a long hesitation and obstinacy are related as the stammering acceptance is related to what is going on in Syria such as a test of the Turkish bets that have no longer horizon. Turkey has led the alliance of the war through its position in the geography and its political, economic, and military status, its Ottoman dream and its Muslim Brotherhood tool. The ceiling of what can be done after what has happened is one of two things, either the bet on dividing Syria or  employing the status which can be stocked to in the Syrian geography through negotiation. It was clear and becomes clearer that the Turks at their forefront Recep Erdogan are aware that going on in the game of division means first and before anything else the recognition of forming a Kurdish entity on their borders, while the prevention of its forming was the priority of the Turkish National Security, which means that the inevitable choice for the Turks is the negotiation, Who is worth the negotiation other than Russia! This is the first line of Erdogan’s visit.

The unity of Syria is a mutual issue between Russia and Turkey; this is the second line, this means practically a Russian commitment of preventing the emergence of a Kurdish entity on the Turkish Syrian borders, and a Turkish commitment of a political solution that restores the whole Syrian geography to one Syrian state. This cannot be achieved but only through two conditions; First, the Syrian areas must not be under the control of organizations such as ISIS and Al Nusra which have not any place in the political solution, and the areas which include three- quarters of the population of Syria, its main cities, agencies of the country and its institutions and which is led by the Syrian President as the Turks know well are the pivotal partner in this political solution  which must be searched for its other partners, even the requirement of this solution was a speech that reassures those presumed partners and enhances the influence on them to  bring them to  a solution, its content is Turkish speech; that states “we are like you, we do not want the Syrian President but achieving that by force is above our capacities and after six years it will be unattainable”. The whole world agreed on the priority of the war on terrorism, so the available ceiling which we recommend of its accepting is a solution that allows free elections with international guarantees, but if the Turks want the option of overthrowing the Syrian President by force, so what are they doing in Moscow, and if the answer is that they bet on that Moscow will promise them of that, then the question becomes was not that what Erdogan has sought for a year ago when Putin has visited him in Turkey and his endeavors have failed as the similar American Saudi endeavors. All of that was before the Russian positioning in the Syrian war; it is the positioning which Erdogan has chosen to confront militarily, in order to overcome its forces which he is aware that they destroy the dreams of overthrowing the Syrian President. But how now, after this positioning and its results, and after the Turkish turning, and after the failure of the bets and the tests?.

The third line is that Russia and Turkey insist on achieving an agreement about Syria that ensures its unity, a political solution, and the continuation of the war on terrorism. This means ensuring the war which Russia wants against Al Nusra front but with the Turkish cooperation, while Turkey requests the prevention of the emergence of a Kurdish entity on its borders with Syria and the prevention of the penetration of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party into the Syrian territories. It asks as well the support of Moscow and its guarantee to achieve that. This means forming effective tripartite mechanism as was stated in the Turkish Russian statements, includes the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Defense, and the Intelligence to exchange the detailed requests by names, numbers, details, and places, but towards what? When the two teams approach from achieving the goal? The answer is towards the participation of the two teams which the Syrian country, its army and its President constitute its first party which Russia ensures its participation, and the mysterious parties of the opposition which their image must be clear for the Turks in order to reach to a political solution that devotes the unity of Syria and its institutions, and ensures the stability of the region, but this does not disturb Turkey which says that it does not change its opinion and its position toward the Syrian President. It sees that it is too early to say that it agreed on a transitional stage with his partnership, and it is so important that the fourth line stated (it is too early)  how is not it too early, since the required is a conjunction of the announcement of this acceptance by bringing wider formation of the opposition for the partnership in the political solution. If this does not happen then there are two conditions; one requires that Turkey keeps trusty for those, that it did not abandon them in its understandings with Moscow. Second is that the military action which is led by Moscow has deprived them from their dreams which are represented by the bet on Al Nusra which has appeared publicly as a force that leads all the battles against the Syrian country and its allies and which forms the main backbone of the armed groups.

The fifth line and the most important is what is stated by the statements of the Russian Ministry of Defense which reached five statements in one day which is the day of the end of the Turkish Russian summit. The first statement stated that seven thousands terrorists are crowding around Aleppo. Second, the dead of the terrorists in the recent battles have reached to one thousand dead terrorists. Third, the Syrian army has moved from the defense to the attack in the southwest of Aleppo. Fourth, Russia announced a truce for three hours daily in Aleppo. Fifth and most importantly is that the Russian aircraft will continue its tasks against the terrorists in Aleppo and its neighborhood; it will stop them just during the announced hours of the truce. Moscow wants to say that it is the first involved in what is going on in Aleppo and what is going on is a war against the terrorists and the Russian aircraft will continue targeting them, and thus who is waiting for a change that is resulted from the summit has to wait it from Turkey not from Russia at all.

Moscow says we are confident that Erdogan wants to turn and there is no choice in front of him but to turn, and we are confident that he is in need of time and of our continuation of the war in order to be able to do so, he needs us to leave him to perform the mission quietly. But this does not mean surely giving him deadlines such as those granted to the Americans, and have led to the preparation and setting up of Al Nusra front in order to be able to wage a war such of this which is igniting today in Aleppo.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,