Is China in Syria & Russia in Yemen ?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The last moments of the Russian –American negotiation revolve around the understanding which supposed that its first outcome is a stormy war in which the two allies which are led by each of Washington and Moscow participate against ISIS and Al Nusra front in Syria and Iraq. The acceleration in presenting papers on the negotiating tables through public messages from every direction and then withdrawing them, and then the alternation in putting new papers and then withdrawing them can be understood. This is the feature of such of these negotiating moments. This does not mean that everything we see and hear these days is deliberated and hollywood, but it is an expression of steps that could be expanded towards higher open ceilings in case the failure of the negotiation, or lower ceilings towards the minimum level in case reaching to an understanding. From  within this context it seems that the Russian positioning on Iranian bases is a vivid example, where there is no day passed regarding the Russian Iranian media debate about how can present and employ the usage of Hamadan the Iranian base by Russia in serving their processes in Syria, till the Russian Iranian declarations returned, and the compatibility through the Iranian affirmation that the Russian usage was by an Iranian demand, and the Russian affirmation that the goal has been achieved from this usage and this could be repeated in need. Therefore the message reached to the Americans, its content is that the cooperation which will emerge from the American evasion from the understanding in waging the war on ISIS and Al Nusra will not be restricted in it, but it will surpass it towards forming new military alliance which Russia and Iran are its nucleus.

The Americans know, as the closer sources from Pentagon in Washington say that freezing escalated effects of the Russian Iranian cooperation militarily outside the necessities of the war in Syria has been settled in exchange of American announcement of withdrawing the larger majority of the US military advisors from Yemen. The barter here is clear that it is in favor of Iran and not at its expense, so this makes the Russian Iranian debate a kind of absorbing the internal backgrounds but under the control and maybe the employment. As the Americans know that their sticking to be with the Saudi war on Yemen and claiming the inability to reach to a just political solution there, as well as the overlooking of the Saudi positioning with Al Nusra front in Syria have arranged Russian position in the Security Council that causes the failure of the draft resolution or the statement which was requested by the Americans and the Russians to behold Ansar Allah and the Popular Conference the responsibility of the failure of the political solution according to Kuwait’s negotiations on one hand, on the other hand, they have arranged the acceleration in forming political council for the rule that imposes popular legitimacy of clear superiority to the government of Mansour Hadi which is supported by Saudi Arabia. This council which agreed by the former President Ali Abdulla Saleh has the ability to grant military facilities to Russia in this sensitive region through activating previous agreements between Moscow and Sanaa, which the Americans have interfered to stop their execution at that time, and that the failure in reaching to an understanding in Yemen and Syria will lead to repercussions of that kind, which today seem as loud screams.

In Hasaka the Kurdish formation which is supported by America escalates militarily, and suddenly Washington emerges from behind showing its seriousness in protecting the elements of its own units on the Syrian territories and then in defending its allied forces. Moscow presented the endeavor of the truce; its implications were applied in the time when the Turkish forces were supporting other Syrian factions to advance to the bordered areas under the control of ISIS. It is clear that it is a competitive and confrontational game with the Kurdish groups supported by Washington, where Syria is mastering the chess game, so it was careful in entering the American ambush which will lead to a confrontation with it instead of a clash with Turkey, it will give Washington the legitimate opportunity of imposing its presence on the Syrian territories in addition to drawing maps and the borders of protection, and their range which this presence is granted. Thus Syria accepted the truce which it would not accept it in different conditions. Moreover a negotiating paper about the American presence is withdrawn from the table where a battle in which the American and the Turkish stand behind two fighting teams between Jarablos and Manbej is driven to the interface, so the Russians immediately present a proposal of joining Syria to the understandings dedicated to the security of the  air flights of the warplanes which includes Washington and Moscow as long as Washington is talking about the danger of conflict between its flights and the Syrian flight, opening the way for restricting the legitimacy in the role of the US air force as a part of the war on terrorism in exchange of bringing the Americans to a coordination where the Syrians are a part of it.

“Xinhua” the Chinese agency said that the Chinese military official  the Admiral “Guan Youfei “ the Director of the International Cooperation Department in the Chinese Central Military Commission has visited Damascus last Sunday and has promised of presenting military and humanitarian  aids to the Syrian government, including expanding the program of training the Syrian army. The Chinese official agency continued that the provision of these aids is a new step which Beijing undertakes in order to enhance its role in the Middle East. The agency has reported the speech of the admiral during his visit to Damascus that Beijing supports the struggle of Syria defending on its independence and it wants more fixed military relations with Syria. He continued saying: “The Chinese and the Syrian armies are related traditionally with friendly relations, the Chinese army wants to continue enhancing the exchange and the cooperation with the Syrian army”. The circulation of the news of sending Chinese military experts to Syria and supporting Damascus in training its military forces, as well as the visit of the Chinese military delegation to Damascus have led to the intensification of the wrath of the US analysts. The US “Fiscal News” site wrote that the increase of the humanitarian aids to the Syrian people and training the Syrian military forces has been turned into new trouble and problem to the Americans. The US site added “ China has decided to take a bigger role in Syria and the announcement of this Chinese step comes after only one day of the Russian announcement of bombing the sites of ISIS in Syria by the Russian aircrafts launching from one of the airports of Iran. These two events have formed together a big problem to the administration of Obama in the White House because the data says that Russia, China, and Iran which stand against America at the international level have been united against a regional player entitled the terrorist ISIS. In this context the US concern increased with the speech of the Head of the Defense committee in the Russian Duma council; the Russian Vladimir Komodo who said that the Chinese military intervention in Syria is the first step towards the formation of a military political alliance with the participation of countries which are not ally to NATO. It is the time for the formation of this new alliance”.

The dimensions of the accelerated messages have been clarified. China has started its participation and it knows that its security is threatened by the size of the involvement of Alaegoro groups in ISIS and Al Nusra, these groups came from the western of China in Jing Jiang province, hundreds of them have participated in the battles of Aleppo, as it knows that the American withdrawal from Afghanistan in the end of the year will open the Russian Chinese and Iranian wild borders, and will allow China across Iran, Iraq, and Syria to connect with the Mediterranean Sea. China is concerned to have this opportunity to achieve this historic dream by doing what is necessary to protect Syria and its independence. The Chinese have started serious steps towards this direction, which the Americans know well, but they know that the failure of the efforts of the understandings will make the size of the Chinese dashing bigger. The implications of this matter expand to the eastern of Asia and what is going on in the Sea of China. Washington continues the provocation. Nothing tempts China to maintain the estrangement of the military movements especially because the Chinese investments allocated to the silk road including roads, railways, oil and gas pipelines from Shanghai to Banias are more than hundred billion dollars, so they deserve moving in order to protect its political and military conditions, but this Chinese movement and maybe the Indian one after, has minimum limit and higher ceiling, so what will determine which will be adopted at the end is the degree of the American response in these sensitive moments of the negotiation.

The region is entering as the chess game the stage of the decisive shifts, where the initiative is at the hands of the resistance and who is with it in Moscow and what is beyond Moscow and beyond beyond Moscow as in the war of July, it is ready for a confrontation in Haifa and what is beyond Haifa and beyond beyond Haifa, so Washington has to master the choice of its shifts and the shifts of its allies before the crucial moment comes where there is “checkmate”.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,