Multi-paths negotiations and the password is Aleppo

Written by Nasser Kandil,

As on the eve of the deadline which was assigned a year ago for the negotiation on the Iranian nuclear program the deadlines have been extended, and the talk once about deep differences, and many times about the technical problems that are being handled to overcome. The same is happening today in the Russian American negotiation, which many say that its range is limited with the announcement of a humanitarian truce in Aleppo, while all the facts and the speech leaked from the issues of the negotiation indicate that it is at least a negotiation for drawing a military and a political framework for the cooperation in Syria. It is a cooperation that includes practically through Washington and Moscow the partnership of all their allies, but it is a negotiation that likely will affect the map of a new international system and a new regional system. But without a public linking with this negotiation there is a foreshadowing of a summit that includes the President of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas and the Prime Minister of the occupation government Benjamin Netanyahu in Moscow, but suddenly it was announced of its postponement from the announced deadline on the ninth of September to a date that is assigned later according to the speech of the Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Mikhail Bogdanov from inside the cobweb, after his meeting with the Prime Minister of the occupation.

As Bogdanov finds a time for the preparation for the summit of Netanyahu Abbas while he is at the peak of the preoccupation with the issues of the negotiation which he was following from Tehran, moment by moment before his travel to meet Netanyahu, the US Secretary of State John Kerry who is involved in managing this negotiation finds three days to spent in Jeddah for the maturity of an initiative for a political solution, he got a Saudi Gulf Yemeni consensus on its adopting. But contrary to the traditional Saudi negotiating priorities, it includes a beginning that based on forming a unified government which was always the main demand of Al Houthis, while in front of all of that the US Chinese Pakistan Afghan negotiations are held, these negotiations are dedicated to draw the limits of the function of the Afghan mainland after the US withdrawal from this mainland early next year. The Europeans show their fears of the future of the situation in Ukraine, while Saudi Arabia shows its readiness to coordinate the oil policies with Russia after years of what was known as the war of prices which Riyadh has waged to drive Moscow towards bankruptcy. The Turkish President Recep Erdogan announces a new position of Turkey which is capable of forming a balance in his relations with both the West and the East.

It is not a difficult to discover the linkage between the multi negotiation paths, when the central player who is the Russian President Vladimir Putin announced in these gathered paths at the end of the Twentieth Summit in China that the multi interests of Russia in the political, economic and security issues of the world do not negate the fact that Syria is still the priority of these interests, as it does not seem difficult to discover the impossibility of the remaining of this world which is under the confusion of these multiple issues in a case of a vacancy without formulating understandings that express the consensus on the impossibility of the feasibility of continuing the conflict around it. So neither the Saudi acceptance of Kerry’s plan for Yemen, nor the acceptance of Abbas or Netanyahu of a summit that includes them together in Moscow, nor the fate of the global oil market of culminating Moscow and Riyadh as international mangers for it is a coincidence or something transient,. Certainly Washington does not want to postpone its withdrawal from Afghanistan as the only alternative to avoid the understandings which coming later.

All of that proves that the understandings are coming quickly, and that the complexity which delays the white smoke is related to Syria and the complications of the understanding around it, especially in the light of the setbacks which affected the armed groups in the southwest of Aleppo after the balance which they succeeded in its forming through having control on the crossing of Al Ramouseh in exchange of the dominance of the Syrian army on the crossing of Alkestlo. This means the need of Washington to grant its allies as in the negotiations of the nuclear program an additional time to restore the balance, but on the way of the nuclear program too for a week to week, while the Turkish President foreshadowed of that accomplishment before Eid- Al Adha which means during this week, while the Foreign Minister of Germany added the foreshadowing by a imminent solution.

The preparation for the platforms of the other tracks seems in a way of completion. The beep is waiting the sign from the Syrian field which will be within days on a date with fierce confrontations that will alone and from Aleppo in particular draw the rest of the scene’s titles, despite what the bombings which targeted the Syrian areas at once say about the ability of the armed groups to move and strike at one time several areas. Because what is going on now is the ability to change the field’s maps, not the ability of the killing for the sake of killing. The news from the fields of Aleppo says that the Syrian army is continuing the progress toward Khan Touman, and it will not stop after it recaptured the military colleges and closing Al Ramouseh crossing, and that the accomplishments will continue to end the terms of the waiting and the presented opportunities to adjust the balances.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,