The twentieth summit in Beijing: Yalta of the twenty-first century

Written by Nasser Kandil,

With the end of August Beijing has started to welcome its guests the participants in the Twentieth Summit which launches tomorrow. The first departing to Beijing yesterday was the US President Barack Obama, the Russian Vladimir Putin and the Chinese President Xi Jinping will be there, in addition to leaders of European, American, and Asian countries. The summit will witness on its sidelines bilateral summits for dealing with the concerns and the affairs of the major conflicts which the world is witnessing, the biggest challenge which is confronted by all and which is represented by the growing and the radicalization of terrorism within the implications resulted from the international and regional temper in the war, which was waged against Syria under the slogan of supporting Syrian opposition. The announced from the bilateral meetings is a meeting that will include the US President and Turkish President Recep Erdogan. The summit comes in a time that combines a group of merits that make it an international destination that transcends the task for which it holds, especially with the promotion of the diplomacy of the occasions. The summits of the Eighth and the Summits of the Twentieth have become events for consultations that surpass their issues, as the summits of the climate change, the summits of limiting the spread of the arms and others of the UN events towards what is witnessing by the corridors of the United Nations in New York during the holding of the General Assembly. So the leaders of the countries will arrange bilateral issues and consultations in order to let them matured and developed in its final formation before holding such of these events. Often their decision of the partnership in the event is contingent on the development of the conditions of the understandings that require their presence to meet other leaders, this often controls the participation of the Russian and the US Presidents whom their consultants announced that they will meet on the sidelines of Beijing Summit, in contrast to the suspicion which was ruling the hypothesis such of this meeting in many of the previous times.

Since Yalta Summit after the Second World War and the reputation of sharing the influence which characterized the participating countries especially the Soviet Russia and America, the Russian and the American leaders avoid bilateral meetings that gather them to discuss the international issues outside the meetings which are held on the sidelines of UN events, knowing that since Yalta the chances for similar summit that leads to viable understandings beyond resolving problems which cause the tension of the relations between Moscow and Washington and for a limited period of time have not been formulated. The interval distance of the big understanding prevented its birth just for a US bet that its experiences of the exclusiveness of leading the world after the disintegration of the Soviet Union have not been completed, because it has lived shifts that started from the war of Yugoslavia and the project of the European Union  in the two mandates of the US President Bill Clinton and the bet on the rapprochement from Moscow towards the options of the US imperial war from Afghanistan to Iraq and its Israeli branches against Lebanon and Palestine in the two mandates of the US President George Bush and ending with the bet of chaos and the civil wars, in addition to the project of the new Ottoman and the Muslim Brotherhood under the slogan of the Arab Spring in the two mandates of the President Barack Obama. Therefore a quarter of a century of failed tests of exclusiveness approaches from the impasse. The terrorism appears as unmerciful challenge; its danger is not less than the danger of Nazism in the outcome. The dates of entitlements as the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the reaching of the Syrian war critical unbearable stages are rushing with the clarity of the Russian Iranian Syrian decision of the single resolving if the settlements and the understandings were disabled and the waiting lasted.

It cannot be discussed how to deal with the opportunity from the perspective of the magnitude of the costs which the American has to pay to accomplish the understanding but from the perspective of the costs which caused by their loss. The complicated scene which will be inherited by any US new administration will not be able to enter the understandings before two years. During these two years the scene of the Middle East will be harder than to be imagined and to be expected, and through it the bloody scene in Europe and maybe in America itself will be under the blows of terrorism. It is certain that Syria will not wait two years which are needed by any new US administration to accommodate the situation and waging the experiences till the language of the settlements and the understandings get matured. The military resolving will be an option that is committed by Syria and its two allies Iran and Hezbollah, while the Russia ally will be obliged to go on with them even if it wishes that America be a partner with it in the solutions. It has already committed to the allies of resolving the options, ending the deadlines with the end of July, and resolving the position from the choice of the understanding by the end of August.

The military processes which Aleppo has witnessed during July and August say that the Russian does not have but to continue the military option if the opportunities of the understanding with the American lost and the mandate of the current president started to fade, thus the waiting becomes a deadly war of attrition. The American knows and expects that very well that the Turkish understanding with Russia and Iran will be a regional alternative the replaces the understanding with him. At least in the phase of the US presidential loss, as the American knows that the understanding on a new map of Asia as an outcome of his withdrawal which will be accomplished in the early next year from Afghanistan, must be settled now otherwise the opportunities of the Russian Chinese Iranian communication for developing their plans dedicated to Asia will rule the geostrategic equations for the most important continent in the world. Thus the title which confronts the US President becomes either the agreement now or all the opportunities of the agreement will be missed, contrary to what some of the analysts imagine of the impossibility of accomplishing great agreements by a president who is preparing himself for the departure, because it provides the opportunity  for a president whose his mandate is ending of an administration in which the articulations of the US decision is developed with any new president accompanied with its choices. The better is for understandings that lead to moral costs instead of asking the new president to pay these costs, especially if the practical impact of the understandings is achieving qualitative achievements in the field of the war on terrorism that gives the presidential candidate of the ruling party a push and better opportunities for the winning. Hillary Clinton was exposed to criticisms from the campaign of her rival Donald Trump it affects her healthy, mental, and moral eligibility in addition to her financial obligation.

In Beijing the meeting of the two Presidents Putin and Obama will be held after the Russian and the American experts have ended the draft of the understandings as the Deputy of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov in Tehran said, talking about near approach by the American and the Russian experts to a big understanding that affects the city of Aleppo, within a comprehensive consideration for the cooperation in Syria within the framework of the war on terrorism. The Russian speech has come with a tribute of the US Secretary of State John Kerry of a dialogue with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. All of this is not a luxury or in vain and was not accomplished before as it was thought to be accomplished within the coming two days, where the preparation has been accomplished with the allies. Russia has coincided on the formulations with Syria and Iran. America has got from Saudi Arabia a framework for the settlement in Yemen. While Turkey is being placed into these backgrounds after the formulation of the understandings.  It has given a new role after it was responsible of sending the militants which are affiliated to it from the areas of the dominance of Al Nusra front; it has sent them to the battles with ISIS. So it has to accept to barter the Kurds in exchange of their giving up of the dream of the bordered strip with the participation in Geneva. The formula of Darya is presented from Mouadamieh to Hai Al Waer in Homs to approach from the eastern countryside of Aleppo with a formula that ensures the exit of the militants who do not want to improve their conditions with the Syrian army along with their families to where the great battle is waiting in Idlib and its countryside.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,