Al-Assad wins: the start of the great US turn

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The fifth round of Geneva Conference seems one of the most important and dangerous and maybe the most successful rounds of negotiation in the history of the war on Syria, for this round the scenario of resolving has been drawn on the rhythm of the plan of having control on a part of the city of Damascus and on a part of the city of Hama. Israel continues its raids on the Syrian points of strength under the pretext of destroying shipments of weapons that belong to Hezbollah, but the operator that gave the green light for the processes of Netanyahu and Mohammed Bin Salman from Washington and to the negotiating delegation which is going to Geneva does not link between these two events, it knows alone that the negotiating escalation coincides with the victories that change the military reality in contrast to what has happened in Aleppo. But when the evets occurred contrary to the expectations and when the Israeli raids received a qualitative deterrence, and furthermore, when the invasions of Al Nusra which is led and funded by Saudi Arabia met a crushing response, it withdrew its alternative plan and left the negotiating delegation talking as fools about imposing conditions of the victorious while it is defeated.

It seems that Netanyahu’s raids and the invasion of Bin Salman for which he prepared a lot politically and militarily are the last attempts of adjusting the military balance which follow the victories of Syria and its allies in Aleppo, while it seems that Washington has prepared everything for the cases of failure and success, if it is known that it will resort to escalation in the case of success, so what will it do in the case of failure after the disappointed positions that have affected its allies successively, including a radical coup on the traditional speech. The talk in the White House has become about the political realism which the Syrian President forms a part of its undeniable reality. France seems as a partner in making the attacks, it is a partner in committing to the consequences in case of failure in exchange of a reverse US commitment in case of success.

Since the entry of the Turks to Al-Bab city the events have accelerated to a decisive race among the regional forces to reserve seats in the Syrian train through their field alternatives, the Turks sought to emerge as a third force parallel to Russia and America in the Syrian field, they put the Kurds as a goal, but they were confronted with the US-Russian red card which drove them out of the arena, while the Saudis and the Israelis tried to tamper in the south, after their recognition that the northern arena is for the major powers as Russia and America, so they got their opportunity but the field has said its final word and was Geneva the balance fund in which the cards are gathered, where Netanyahu and Bin Salman went out empty-handed from this round which seems the last one before the change of the positions.

Within two days there were successive positions issued by Washington that prove that what has been said about the Syrian President is not mere a diligence , or a hypothesis or a circumstantial position, but it is a policy that is drawn and studied as an alternative to the failure of the last invasions, which each of Netanyahu and Bin Salman got the green light from Washington to implement them, but after the positions of the US Secretary of State and the current US Ambassador to the United Nations there was an affirmative interpretation of the same position issued by the White House under the slogan of the political realism.

Everyone knows that the essence of the political dimension of the war on Syria depends on one question, a solution with the presence of the Syrian President of without him, but through resolving the consensus on a unified answer from Washington or Moscow Syria is moving to a new phase, so if Washington says that the solution is with the presence of the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad then it is a coup in the course of  war and negotiation, exactly as if Moscow said that the solution is without the presence of the Syrian President, so one of the two poles has to change in order to change the course, and now it is changing.

Al-Assad is wining in the field as in politics.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,