Events that reflect the image of the world and the region

Written by Nasser Kandil,

There are many facts and successive events that can be taken into consideration to draw the direction which will rule the developments in the world and the region and which will form a framework for a context not just an accumulation of facts. But it is enough to see the striking of them and which form a qualitative paradox comparing with what was known as axioms five years ago.

In 2012 the two candidates for the US presidency Barack Obama and Mitt Romney have competed, Obama for the second term and Romney as a candidate of the Republican Party, as the two candidates for the French presidency Nicolas Sarkozy for the second term and the current President Francois Hollande. One of the items of the competitive presidential speech in the two cases is who will be able to topple the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, and who will present the important support for the militants of the groups which strive to topple him. In 2016 Donald Trump won the US presidency versus the competitive candidate Hillary Clinton. The difference between the two speeches is that Clinton’s adoption of the choice of the continuation of the war against the Syrian President and the support of the armed opponent groups, and Donald’s adoption of a speech that calls for the priority of the war on terrorism without seeing the justification to topple the Syrian President, however he calls to cooperate with him, while in France Francois Fillon is preparing himself for the presidential competition as a representative of the center-right after his winning against his rival Alain Juppe. The competitive speech of Juppe is his adoption of the escalation against the Syrian President while Francois Fillon is calling to cooperate with him. Fillon will compete his candidate of the extreme-right Marine Le Pen whose her speech is similar to Fillon’s speech regarding.

In 2014 Hezbollah announced its support for the nomination of the General Michael Aoun for the presidency. According to the majority of the Lebanese interior and the Arab and non-Arab world that nomination was not realistic and closer to be negotiated, in exchange of any other nomination for a competitor who represents the political color which opposes Hezbollah, towards a consensus candidate as the one who has been already the solution in the presidential term of the General Michael Suleiman. After two years and a half the opponents of Hezbollah have repositioned at its semi impossible nomination, and the General Michael Aoun has been elected as the President of the Lebanese Republic.

Four years ago the Turkish President Recep Erdogan has the decisive word militarily and politically in the northern of Syria, Aleppo was one of the areas which were under his guardianship. Today the Syrian army and its allies are making a progress in the neighborhoods of Aleppo, but the Turkish President is unable to do anything.

Realizing the international scene of Syria for five years ago was waiting for a statement by the US Secretary of State, it was enough to accept cease-fire for an apparent goal, which was to ensure the opportunity for the militants to assemble their ranks as has happened in Homs on the days of the mediation of Kofi Anan as UN envoy, or in Aleppo on the days of the mediation of Al Akhdar Al Ibrahim, for exerting pressure on Syria by its allies at their forefront Russia in order not to provoke the Americans despite knowing the cost which will be paid by Syria for allowing the American trap. Today the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is taking over this provocation against the Americans personally, he says that Washington is cooperated in reaching for a solution that ensures cease-fire in Aleppo, its title is the exit of all the militants, and the one who left among them will be treated as a terrorist, and that Moscow will support the Syrian army to get rid of him by force.

Five years ago the eyes of the whole world were toward the arrival of the US troops to be positioned  in Syria, and the Arab approach to the Security Council was by a resolution from the League of the Arab countries to grant this reposition an Arab cover. Today Russia is repositioning in Syria and its aircrafts are hovering in the Syrian airspaces, they are progressing as an active partner in the war of defending for Syria, after Washington has come with its fleets and it regressed as it came.

Two years ago, Saudi Arabia has put its importance to wage the war price to lower the price of oil, flooding the market with millions of surplus barrels of the customers’ need, and its bet is on bankrupting Russia and Iran. However many weeks ago it was appealing for the Russian Iranian consensus on an understanding that allows reducing the production that it would bear its burdens, and ensures for Iran an important share in the market hoping to improve the price after the outcome of its behavior was the bankruptcy along with Russian Iranian steadfastness in politics and economy.

There are many signs that contribute in drawing a steady track in the world and the region, its title is the change of the decision’s balances and the reality of the slogans which were raised by forces that were seen as adventurers. The stay of the President Al-Assad is an adventure, the arrival of the General Aoun to presidency is an adventure, the control of Iran of the oil market is an adventure, and the Russian control of the international military equation in the Middle  East starting from Syria is an adventure, but the adventurers seem more realistic than those who met on the call and the pledge of the departure of the President Al-Assad, and they started that successively, they continue leaving but Al-Assad remains.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,