How will the Syrian group of Riyadh behave?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

It seems clear that the authorization which was granted to Saudi Arabia to manage the negotiation about Syria through Riyadh conference has been totally taken away from it by America after the US and the Russian Presidents have announced their understanding on a plan for the southern of Syria. This authorization was partially taken away from it before due to the refusal to grant any of the military formations that affiliated to the group of Riyadh a role in Raqqa battles, and restricting the matter with the Kurdish groups which were shown as a main ally to Washington among the Syrian groups, which were followed by chosen groups from the workers in Jordan who were assigned to the battles of Tanf. This is a sufficient shift to say that the opposition group of Riyadh which has remained since the arrival of the US President Donald Trump to the White House declaring publicly that it waits till the new US strategy to become clear on which it relies to have many changes discovers that it is outside this strategy.

It was right for this group to wait the US strategy, because it is the essence for what determines the policies of the alliance which gives it the cover, support and role, but after the signs of this strategy became clear, which their basis is the understanding with Russia on a political and security solution proposed by the French President in the presence of the US President and was announced by the Washington Post as an axis of the US change, it based on the recognition of the legitimacy of the Syrian President and dealing with him as a fait accompli till new agreed elections take place within a political solution and after the end of the war on terrorism. The question becomes how the group of Riyadh will behave towards the issue which it made the center of disrupting every opportunity of the political solution under the title of the priority of determining the fate of the Syrian presidency as a condition for any solution?

It is clear that the Americans, the Russians, and the French, and soon the Turks will cooperate to form a negotiating opposition unified delegation that includes the Kurds, it will ensure the abolition of the Kurdish military privacy on the Turkish borders, and it will ensure the representation of those who are of interest to America, France, Russia, and Turkey. It is clear that such of this political- ceiling attempt that is agreed by the major players will create a regional international connecting group that includes them with Saudi Arabia and Iran, so the Saudis will be asked to choose between going on in this solution or getting out of it without embarrassment. Saudi Arabia is burdened with two big files: its war in Yemen and its crisis with Qatar. In both cases it needs America more than its need to the group of Riyadh, so what will those do?

The UN envoy talked and the Russian Ambassador in Geneva talked about positive changes in the position of the group of Riyadh. The Russian Ambassador said that there are extremist elements that are still live in the past and they obstruct the unity of the opposition and its reality, the response came from the coordinator of the group of Riyadh, who speaks in the name of the group by negation and the sticking to the position against the Syrian leadership as a determining factor of the political solution. After this group has lost any military influence; the Army of Islam the negotiating representative and the head of its military mission in Astana and after it announced its disbanding in order to join a formula that allows its accepting in negotiations for Ghouta, after it has lost the international coverage of its position due to the positions of America and France, and has lost half of the regional cover after the joining of Turkey implicitly through the equation of Astana on which the Russians, the Americans, and the French agreed, as long as it ensures the end of the Kurdish military privacy, through the participation of the Kurds in Geneva, the question simply became will the bet on the Saudi disruption form a sufficient reason for a position where Saudi Arabia does not have but only more of reservation, withdrawal or leaving the matter to the group of Riyadh and what it will decide?

The political stupidity is a description that needs for real examples. The professors of history and the political sciences explain to their students through it the meaning through means of clarification. It is certain that the history of the opposition group of Riyadh and its symbols will provide an example for the professors to explain the meaning of the political stupidity without making effort.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,