Manbej Agreement saved De Mistura

Written by Nasser Kandil,

All Geneva indicators and its talks head toward the deadlock through the refusal of Riyadh’s group under Turkish –Saudi support to insert the fourth item allocated to discuss the war on terrorism in parallel with the three items which are allocated to discuss the form of the rule, the constitution, and the elections, which did not meet the aspiration of Riyadh delegation to open the door of the search under the name of the transitional ruling body, and the future of the Syrian presidency. The consideration of Riyadh’s delegation supported by Turkey and Saudi Arabia was due to the linkage of the failure with the absence of the US presence and with what they called the Iranian escalation and the Russian inability, according to the equation of the common Turkish-Saudi speech after the winning of the US President Donald Trump and his submission to the calendar of the US institution to suspend the cooperation with Russia to another time. The repositioning of Turkey on that basis at a common position with Saudi Arabia disabled the endeavors of the settlements and escalated the situation against Iran waiting for the next US step to become clear. This led to the decline of Astana dash which was progressing.

At a dramatic unexpected moment, the Turks found themselves in front of the need to take shelter with the equations of Astana instead of disabling them or abolishing them, because they want to avoid a confrontation with the Syrian army supported by Russia, and to accept considering the deployment which will be implemented by the Syrian army in the northern of Syria in the areas and the villages of the Kurds to isolate them from the Turks and their groups a part of the necessary understanding with Moscow and its sponsoring of Astana and its items, knowing that they moved to Al Bab because it is the gateway which leads them the Kurdish areas, the fighting of ISIS was not but a tax which they paid to achieve this goal, but they are in front of the difficult choices and the need to preserve the rules of the cooperation with Russia, so they accepted the matter with all its bitterness and the feeling of the loss after the high costs in the battle of Al-Bab.

Instead of abolishing Astana, the applying of Manbej agreement has required the applying of Astana and keeping it as a viable framework, entitled fighting against the terrorism. This title has become the fire escape of the Turks from the embarrassments of the defeat, so the instructions to Geneva have been changed, and instead of the refusal the of the fourth item about fighting against the terrorism they have accepted it, even after it was clarified in details that there is no place to insert factions that are not mentioned in the resolution 2254. As Riaydh delegation which tried in the beginning to talk about Hezbollah. Therefore the terrorism which its fighting will be discussed later is confined with Al Nusra and ISIS and who fight with them. There is no priority for Riyadh group In order to hide behind, as the metaphysical interpretations which it tries to grant to the political item, and showing it as an acceptance of its call for the political transition and a transitional ruling body.

The moving successfully of the Syrian army toward Palmyra in a successful timing, its progress in the northeast of Aleppo, and its persistence in Deir Al Zour have formed a triangle that besieged Raqqa and paved the way for forming a bilateral with the Kurdish groups that changes the strategic balances in the east of Syria. With reference to the Turkish-Kurdish deadlock and the inability of the Americans to resolve it despite the endeavors of the Head of the CIA in Ankara, all of that have made Manbej agreement between the Syrian army and the Kurds a qualitative shift that imposes itself strongly and puts Astana and the fighting against the terrorism as a title that cannot be ignored, till what is needed becomes that one of the two teams has to bear the defeat Turkey or the negotiating Riyadh’s group in Geneva. So the weakest has to bear the defeat, Riyadh’s group retreated in submission to the orders of Turkey to facilitate Manbej agreement, with a simple Turkish reminder to the negotiators “do not forget who is working for whom”.

This time the Syrian army saved De Mistura.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,