Moscow to Erdogan: Either a settlement with Russian ceiling or a resolving with Iranian ceiling
Written by Nasser Kandil,
The Turkish President Recep Erdogan will arrive to Moscow after his mission has been changed from the incitement against Iran, to justify his regression of the calendar and the commitments of Astana, his asking for giving time till the US positions become clear, and his call to be preferred to the Iranians in the Russian treatment, so he became weak after he was thinking that he is strong. Everything has changed from the gate of Manbej, Erdgoan became the first loser after he spent the costs of the collision with ISIS in Al-Bab and gained the enmity of the organization which he sponsored, all of that was to please the Americans in order to make him having the control on the Kurds. But the result as described by the Turks was that the Americans prefer the Syrian army to the allied Turkish one, and their acceptance of its entry to Manbej instead of the Turkish army not for the sake of the Kurds, but for the preparation to the war of Raqqa which the Syrian army has become the only capable force to wage it, and because it is present in its three fronts in Palmyra, Tedef, and Dei Al-Zour under the Russian sponsorship.
Erdogan will face in Moscow castigation for his betrayal of the understandings, from his entry to Al Bab city to his regression of Astana commitments, his disabling Geneva negotiations, and his ignition of the escalation against the Iranian partner in Astana process to justify the getting out of it, but after the castigation, the Russians will say that who wants to wait the US position let him wait alone, because the developments will not wait for him. Moscow will not make use of the economic relations to exert pressure on Turkey and alienating it away from the political path, so Turkey has to choose between to wait or to join the political process with Russian ceiling quickly and clearly, otherwise Russia is going to abide by a military resolving path as in Aleppo which means with Iranian ceiling. Simply the issue depends on the presence of Syrian political military partner from the ranks of the opposition who is able to cover the participation in a government under the leadership of the Syrian President and in the war on ISIS and Al Nusra, where Turkey can reserve its seat. Otherwise there will be a war in Idlib and in the Southern of Syrian that ends the armed groups along with Al Nusra, and then the war on ISIS with the cooperation with the Americans and the Kurds, where there is no place for the Turks. Therefore the political process will be confined to those who attended Riyadh platform and the platforms of Moscow and Cairo.
The mission of the Iranian President Sheikh Hassan Rouhani who will arrive to Moscow after Erdogan was the call to exert pressure on Turkey which manipulates with the positions, but this time he was excepted from that demand, since he achieved what he wanted. Moscow will present a cooperation agenda in Syria entitled the preparation to keep the balance under the tension of surprises as the Iranians were always asking for before. Without the progress of the Syrian in Palmyra and in the northern of Syria neither was the change in Manbej nor was the Turkish transition and perhaps the American one. The Russian political ceiling protects the settlements’ opportunities, while the Iranian military ceiling produces these opportunities, so Moscow has become convinced to proceed with them together, and that the escalated US speech does not exceed the media wars, as a result of what is going on in Manbej and the practical US attitude toward the deployment of the Syrian army, and what is going to happen in the battles of Raqqa, and as what has happened through the US overlook of the role of the popular crowd in Iraq despite the too much talk and what happened with the US ship USS in confronting the Iranian boats near the Strait of Hormuz unlike the media talk.
Moscow is confident of the quantitative changes in the Syrian scene this year.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,