Saudi Arabia offers the head of its Syrian group for sale and its role for rent

Written by Nasser Kandil,

For many years ago, the Saudi role in Syria and the Saudi ceiling of the situation in Syria were forming the center of drawing its policies and employing its potentials whether willingly or unwillingly. Riyadh put the standards of its foreign Arab, regional, and international relationships at a mono- criterion that summarizes the answer for the question: are you with us and is your plan to overthrow Syria or are you with the Syrian country and its president, the one who is not with us is against us. And so Saudi Arabia offered temptations to Russia, it reached to the extent of giving investments of one hundred billion dollars and purchases of weapons of the same price in order to change Russia’s position, but when it refused it waged against it and against Iran war of prices in the oil market, that brought Saudi Arabia to the edge of bankruptcy. Everything was able to be changed in Saudi Arabia for the sake of the position from Syria. It has confronted Egypt in defense of Qatar on the day when the Qataris interfered to prevent a UN resolution in favor of Egypt in Libya, because Qatar is a partner in the war on Syria, it reconciled with the Muslim Brotherhood and cooperated with Turkey despite the competition on roles, just because the title of the cooperation was the war to overthrow Syria. The relationship with Washington has witnessed its worst crises when the former US President Barack Obama withdrew his fleets dismissing the war on Syria, therefore the Saudi annoying reached the extent of issuing a formal statement against Washington and refraining from accepting its seat in the Security Council.

Since the year 2015, Saudi Arabia was losing its papers gradually; it has lost the margins of maneuvering and movement. Since April of that year it got involved in a war that it thought that it is an outing in Yemen, but now the war is in its third year. Saudi Arabia is losing financially, militarily, and politically. At the end of that year the Russians got involved directly in the war on Syria, so the field developments started to predict of the fall of project of having control on Syria. After the announcement of the nuclear understanding between the west and Iran Riyadh has recognized the impossibility of the winning during the administration of the President Obama which has reached in 2016 to understanding with Moscow that is known by Kerry-Lavrov understanding. Riyadh moved to bet on the US presidential elections adopting the nomination of Hillary Clinton to continue the war on Syria, after the speeches of the candidate Donald Trump revealed his intentions to get out of it, while the field development prove the fall of the bet on overthrowing Syria. The battle of Aleppo was a knockout, but when Trump became a president, Riyadh has done everything possible to have him in its side, it imagined that it has achieved that especially after it gave him five billion dollars for the investments and deals, but instead of getting out of Yemen’s swamp it has fallen in another swamp; the crisis with Qatar, now it fails to win.

Washington returned to politics with Moscow, it went far in the understandings, so it is no longer in need of Riyadh which was the necessary title for the war on terrorism and which is not suitable as a title for the understanding with Moscow. Egypt is more qualified and it may compensate the Saudi absence. Overthrowing Syria is no longer an achievable target according to the US reading, while the title of the war on ISIS forms an acceptable alternative for the US presence. While Saudi Arabia needs Washington in its war on Yemen and its crisis with Qatar, as in its financial and oil problems. The Saudis were certain that they do not have the ability to serve the three wars together; Yemen, Syria, and Qatar, because it does not have the ability to bear the cost of ending the war of Yemen quickly in a way that does not show its clear defeat. Today the priority of Saudi Arabia is to win the war of Qatar because this war is the fiercest, so it has the priority in winning it. So for its sake Riyadh is offering its role in Syria for rent, in return of positions that support or neutralize opposed positions. The crisis with Qatar and what is going on with Egypt and Turkey in Syria by Saudi Arabia is a clear indication for that. Take your role in Syria and support us in our crisis with Qatar, even the war of Hezbollah in Arsal according to Saudi Arabia is a war on a group affiliated to Qatar, so there is no problem in the cooperation of the Lebanese army with it or in the overlooking of the Lebanese government to wage it, even if those who support do not understand this shift, but they keep talking in the language of past hoping to get the satisfaction. The army of Islam in Ghouta has become a negotiating paper with Moscow under the title “Qatar”. And soon the negotiating body of Riyadh may be dismantled to barter with Iran or Moscow under the title of Qatar. Maybe if some Lebanese who belong to Saudi Arabia do not realize the fact quickly, then their Saudi fate will follow the fate of the Syrian Saudi groups.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,