Saudi Arabia will occupy Qatar

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Nothing has occurred to justify severing the diplomatic relations and the punitive procedures against Qatar during the days that followed publishing the speech attributed to the Prince of Qatar and adopting it as a pretext for the continuous Saudi campaign against the Prince of Qatar, despite the Prince’s denial of the validity of the published speech, what has happened was a series of indications that confirm Qatar’s desire to solve the crisis through concessions that they seem to have high Saudi ceiling. After it was clear that the speech attributed to the Prince of Qatar was fabricated as a justification to create the crisis towards what satisfies Riyadh and equals what it paid to the US President Donald Trump in exchange of authorizing to solve the Qatari crisis according to the Saudi interests.

This means that there is a goal that must be reached by the crisis; it is one of three hypotheses, the continuation of escalation, the continuation of the crisis, and its turning into mutual media war. It is a matter that does not suit Saudi Arabia after it took many steps and mobilization till it brought countries as Maldives and Mauritius Islands to announce their breaking off their relations with Qatar, after Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, and Bahrain took unified decisions to break off their relations, to close the airspaces and the water, to expel the nationals, and to withdraw the investments. So the matter becomes between two choices either a settlement that ends with the stepping down of the ruling Prince of Qatar and handing over the power to whom agreed by Riyadh, or with the invasion of Qatar militarily after arranging a coup that announces the overthrow of the ruling Prince, and thus he will appeal to Saudi Arabia for fear of what he called the danger of the Iranian intervention.

After the visit of Trump the Saudis ensured at least the neutrality of Al-Adid the US military base, since it is the actual ruler of Qatar militarily, they ensured that if they succeed in enticing Iran for a military intervention, the battle will take place in a Gulf country in which Washington will find itself committed to support Saudi Arabia in this war, so this will ensure an international understanding if there is a confrontation with Iran. Saudi Arabia wants this to show that the battle with Qatar is as a part of the confrontation with Iran with ensuing the winning in it to show that Iran is weaker than it claims. The Saudis want to make the Qatari Prince appeal Tehran to repel the Saudi invasion in order to involve Iran.

Qatar and Saudi Arabia shared the stages of war against Syria and the resistance as they shared their funding, so the ceiling of what Iran can offer is the facilitation of the transfer of the Turkish ground units across its territories to move by sea to Qatar, and when Iran decides to confront Saudi Arabia in the Gulf, then Yemen and Bahrain are supposed to have the support than Qatar, and if Saudi Arabia is need of this battle which was drawn with the Americans then Iran will not give it to them, so Qatar and Turkey have to think how to confront the risks from their allies or to move totally from one alliance to another alliance which includes Iran, Russia, Iraq, Syria, and the resistance. The beginning of belonging to it is a public review of what it had committed of crimes against Syria, and dismantling the armed groups supported by Doha and Ankara, as well as supporting the Syrian army to extend its domination over its national territory to make up for some of the crimes committed against Syria and the axis of the resistance.

Unless this happens, the day of the Saudi invasion of Qatar is not so far.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,