Significant Brief Further than oil ….. Russian Saudi Iranian understanding

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Many people who observe the situations of the world and the region think that what is going on in Aleppo belongs to the Syrians themselves, but they forget that the Saudi stubbornness in all the regional issues starts and ends in Syria. Its final cartridge was the support of the arrival of the US presidential candidate Hillary Clinton according to an understanding, its content is supporting Al Nusra front with qualitative anti-aircrafts weapons, but the dream ends and turns into a nightmare with the arrival of Donald Trump to presidency, who considers Saudi Arabia among the burdens which must be disposed in the US policy, he calls to get out of the swamp of the war on Syria through an understanding with Russia and an openness to the Syrian country, its army, and its President. But the battle in Aleppo remains the articulated arena which decides the end of the stubbornness and the fall of the dream.

The Saudis betted on two weapons, one is represented by the seek to contribute with the Zionist lobbies and financing them to ensure the arrival of an American president to the White House who is complied with the Saudi Israeli aspiration to continue the war against the Syrian country, the investment on Al Nusra front, the seeking to promote it as a moderate alternative rather than ISIS, and the refusal of the US Russian Understanding which was concluded by the US Secretary of State John Kerry entitled dismantling the relation of the opposition from Al Nusra and brings it to the political negotiation in exchange of waging the war against Al Nusra. The second weapon is to exert pressure on each of Russia and Iran in the oil and gas market through a price war, which was waged by Saudi Arabia by flooding the market with millions of the surplus barrels till the price of the barrel has been reduced from a hundred and thirty dollars to thirty dollars. This caused daily loss for each of Russia and Saudi Arabia together, its value exceeds billion dollars which means more than three hundred dollars annually, and the loss of Iran was nearly two hundred million dollars per day, which means more than sixty billion dollars annually. Saudi Arabia was strong due to its financial stock, so it hoped a financial collapse and thus a political one to Russia and Iran.

Within two years, Russia and Iran withstood and waged the war of Syria with all what they have till the Saudi project approaches from the final defeat, Saudi Arabia lost its balances and its reserves, and the US Gesta Law came to freeze the rest, therefore,  the deadly disability occurs in the Saudi balance and the track of austerity starts by raising the prices and lowering the salaries. These two years witnessed the understanding on the Iranian nuclear program with the West, and the Russian military reposition in Syria. The Russian and the Iranian economies accustomed to the new oil prices despite the harsh effects which were left by the financial Saudi war, they see the running out of the Saudi deposits and balances, waiting the scream of Saudi Arabia, they know well that the war in Syria and Yemen according to the bills of the US weapons is enough to exhaust the Saudi capacities.

At the meeting of OPEC which was held in Algeria a few months ago, Saudi Arabia tried to reach to an understanding that re-turns the balance to the oil market, by demanding the understanding with Iran from a position that maintains its daily size of production of twelve million barrels per day, and the stability of Iran on two million barrels which it has produced before the understanding on its nuclear program and lifting the sanctions on it, Iran has refused that, but the attraction continued politically, militarily, and financially in all the arenas, but Saudi Arabia was aspiring to Syria whether through waiting the US presidential bet or waiting for what is going to happen in Aleppo.

The Saudis lost the two bets, so they returned to the negotiation on the oil market, they agreed on the Iranian demand by raising the share of Iran to what it was before the siege, which means three and a half million barrels in addition to four hundred thousand barrels as a compensation for what Iran has missed during the period of siege and the sanctions, in exchange of lowering the Saudi production to ten and a half million barrels. Russia collaborated to reduce its production to three hundred thousand barrels per day, in exchange of sharing the increase in the production among three, when the market stabilizes and the demand for the bids increases. The resulting outcome is known, it is the decline of the Saudi revenues of quarter for nearly a year in exchange of the return to the appropriate price. This means one thing, stopping the expenditure on wars and the behaving according to the equation of Saudi Arabia first, even if this implies the recognition of the loss in Syria and Yemen and the regressing towards the Saudi interior.

During the separated year of the improvement of prices, Iran will benefit from the increase of its production in quantity that equals by the current prices nearly twenty billion dollars annually, while Saudi Arabia accepts the loss of nearly fifty billion dollars annually, till the improvement starts to emerge in the market and prices. On the day of signing the nuclear understanding with Iran, including freeing Iran’s balances, Saudi Arabia says that more money at the hands of Iran means more money at the hands of Hezbollah, Syria, Al Houthis, and the resistance in Palestine. This means the Iranian influence in the region, in exchange of stopping the Saudi spending on the wars, which is so-called by Iran the Saudi influence in the region.

The agreements between the countries and the change in their tracks do not have always direct nominations or disrupted issues, but they are summarized with expressive symbols as the relation between the timing of the Saudi retreat and what is happening in Aleppo, after what has happened in Washington and in anticipation for what is going to happen in Paris, and the relationship between the political repositioning and the financial accounts of a country that does not have any balance to be present in politics but through its bursaries, which now are running out, the acceptance of their shortage temporarily is an implicit acceptance of getting out of the politics’ arenas.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,